EUR/USD Weekly Special Report Based on 1 Lot Calculation:
US FEDERAL RESERVE:
- NEXT MEETING: DECEMBER 10 AT 19:00 GMT. The US Federal Reserve is expected to finish the year 2025 by cutting the rates to 3.75% on December 10.
- BREAKING (OCTOBER 29): US FEDERAL RESERVE CUT INTEREST RATE TO 4.00% FROM 4.25%. The Fed cut rates again in October after the one earlier in September. In total, this year, rates have fallen from 4.50% to the current 4.00%.
- FED CHAIR JEROME POWEL’S TERM ENDS IN MAY 2026, AND THE US PRESIDENT WILL MOST LIKELY NAME A NEW SUCCESSOR IN EARLY 2026. The US administration has already announced the 5 candidates that could replace Mr. Powel. All of the candidates support a policy of low interest rates, creating the conditions that the interest rate cut cycle will continue in 2026, potentially further pushing the US dollar downward.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK:
- THURSDAY, DECEMBER 18 AT 13:15 GMT: EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB) INTEREST RATE DECISION. The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, after preliminary eurozone inflation for November came in above expectations at 2.2%, up from 2.1%. Earlier this year, the bank cut its three key policy rates by a total of 100 basis points before pausing in July. The current rate sits at 2.15%.
EVENTS:
- TUESDAY, DECEMBER 16 AT 13:30 GMT: NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (NOVEMBER) IN U.S. The US labor market data remains one of the most important indicators used by the US Fed, which could potentially predict when new interest rate cuts may be implemented. The unemployment rate held above 4% in September, at 4.4%. Another weak reading could increase pressure on the U.S. dollar.
- WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 17 AT 10:00 GMT: EU INFLATION (CPI)(NOVEMBER): The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures change in the prices of goods and services from the consumer’s perspective. A preliminary report showed that inflation in the Euro zone rose in November from 2.1% to 2.2%, exceeding the 2.1% estimate.
PRICE ACTION:
- ANALYST OPINION: JP Morgan projects EUR/USD at 1.20 by end-2025 and 1.22 in early 2026; UBS expects the pair to rise toward 1.26 in 2026; Bank of America forecasts 1.20 by year-end 2025 and 1.25 during 2026; Morgan Stanley targets 1.26 by June 2026.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
- LONGER-TERM UPTREND: Since late May 2025, EUR/USD has been moving within a steady rising trend, supported by the upward-sloping blue trendline. The pair continues to trade above this trendline, confirming that the broader upward structure remains intact despite several periods of sideways consolidation.
- KEY MOVING AVERAGE (MA) SUPPORT: EUR/USD has now moved above the 50-day MA, which indicates improving short-term momentum. Sustained trade above this moving average would strengthen the positive outlook.
GRAPH (Daily): May 2025– December 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
EURUSD, December 5, 2025.
Current Price: 1.1650
|
EUR/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.2000 |
|
|
1.1850 |
|
|
1.1760 |
|
|
1.1550 |
|
|
1.1530 |
|
|
1.1500 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
EUR/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
3,500 |
2,000 |
1,100 |
-1,000 |
-1,200 |
-1,500 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
3,006 |
1,718 |
945 |
-859 |
-1,031 |
-1,288 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
2,624 |
1,499 |
825 |
-750 |
-900 |
-1,124 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
4,877 |
2,787 |
1,533 |
-1,394 |
-1,672 |
-2,090 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 12:05 (GMT) 05/12/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit