EUR/USD Weekly Special Report Based on 1 Lot Calculation:
US FEDERAL RESERVE:
- BREAKING (WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 10): US FEDERAL RESERVE CUT THEIR INTEREST RATE TO 3.75% FROM THE PREVIOUS 4.00%. This is their third consecutive rate cut, following those on September 17 and October 29, 2025. It marks the lowest rate since September 2022.
- EARLIER:
OCTOBER 29, 2025: US FEDERAL RESERVE CUT INTEREST RATE TO 4.00% FROM 4.25%.
SEPTEMBER 17, 2025: US FEDERAL RESERVE CUT INTEREST RATE TO 4.25% FROM 4.00%.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK:
- THURSDAY, DECEMBER 18 AT 13:15 GMT: EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB) INTEREST RATE DECISION. The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, after preliminary eurozone inflation for November came in above expectations at 2.2%, up from 2.1%. Earlier this year, the bank cut its three key policy rates by a total of 100 basis points before pausing in July. The current rate sits at 2.15%.
EVENTS:
- TUESDAY, DECEMBER 16 AT 13:30 GMT: NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (NOVEMBER) IN THE U.S. The US labor market data remains one of the most important indicators used by the US Fed, which could potentially predict when new interest rate cuts may be implemented. The unemployment rate held above 4% in September, at 4.4%. Another weak reading could increase pressure on the U.S. dollar.
- WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 17 AT 10:00 GMT: EU INFLATION (CPI)(NOVEMBER): The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in the prices of goods and services from the consumer’s perspective. A preliminary report showed that inflation in the Eurozone rose in November from 2.1% to 2.2%, exceeding the 2.1% estimate.
- THURSDAY, DECEMBER 18 AT 13:30 GMT: U.S. INFLATION (CPI) (NOVEMBER). A softer CPI reading would point to easing inflation and increase expectations for further Fed rate cuts, which typically weaken the U.S. dollar.
PRICE ACTION:
- ANALYST OPINION: JP Morgan projects EUR/USD at 1.20 by the end of 2025 and 1.22 in early 2026; UBS expects the pair to rise toward 1.26 in 2026; Bank of America forecasts 1.20 by year-end 2025 and 1.25 during 2026; Morgan Stanley targets 1.26 by June 2026.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
- LONGER-TERM UPTREND: Since late May 2025, EUR/USD has been moving within a steady rising trend, supported by the upward-sloping blue trendline. The pair continues to trade above this trendline, confirming that the broader upward structure remains in place.
- KEY MOVING AVERAGE (MA) SUPPORT: EUR/USD has now moved above both the 50-day MA and 100-day MA, which indicates improving short and mid-term positive momentum. However, it could also decline.
GRAPH (Daily): May 2025– December 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
EURUSD, December 12, 2025.
Current Price: 1.1715
|
EUR/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.2000 |
|
|
1.1900 |
|
|
1.1830 |
|
|
1.1610 |
|
|
1.1580 |
|
|
1.1550 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
EUR/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
2,850 |
1,850 |
1,150 |
-1,050 |
-1,350 |
-1,650 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
2,432 |
1,578 |
981 |
-896 |
-1,152 |
-1,408 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
2,132 |
1,384 |
860 |
-786 |
-1,010 |
-1,235 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
3,923 |
2,546 |
1,583 |
-1,445 |
-1,858 |
-2,271 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:10 (GMT) 12/12/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit