Gasoline weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
SANCTIONS WAR:
- RUSSIA STARTS CUTTING OIL PRODUCTION BY 500,000 BARRELS ON MARCH 1 2023: Russia has formally cut production of crude oil by 500,000 barrels, with some analysts suggesting further cuts may be possible. The cuts pushed Crude Oil prices higher, with gasoline expected to rise further as a result.
- EU BAN ON RUSSIAN OIL PRODUCT (GASOLINE, DIESEL, NAPHTHA) IN PLACE SINCE FEBRUARY 5, 2023. The EU has prohibited the imports of Russian gasoline, diesel and other products used in Europe. Additionally, the G7 has implemented a $100 price cap on Diesel and a $45 cap on fuel oils. Since the ban was implemented, Gasoline prices are up about 6.2%.
CHINA REOPENING THEIR ECONOMY AFTER MONTHS OF CLOSURE:
- CHINA FACTORY ACTIVITY GREW THE FASTEST IN MORE THAN 10 YEARS, SET TO SPARK HIGHER DEMAND FOR GASOLINE. With Chinese factory activity growing sharply, demand for gasoline is set to rise as transport of factory products in China is set to pick up sharply. SIGNS OF REBOUNDING DEMAND IN CHINA. MOBILITY DATA SHOWS A STRONG RECOVER IN ACTIVITY WITH ROAD CONGESTION UP 47% M/M IN FEBRUARY: Strong rebound in activity within China is also set to push demand for gasoline higher, with road travel in China picking up substantially over February.
USA
- EVENT: REFINERY MAINTENANCE PERIOD HAS BEGUN IN THE US, SET TO LAST UP TO 11-WEEKS, WITH LOWER SUPPLIES EXPECTED: Annual refinery maintenance works began mid-February in the US, with at least 15 refineries expecting outages, twice the usual number of refineries usually overhauled. Refinery processing is set to remove about 1.4 million barrels a day. The drop in refining capacity could be expected to impact gasoline supplies and could push prices higher.
- STATISTICS (2017-2022): GASOLINE PRICES INCREASE 9.2% ON AVERAGE BETWEEN FEBRUARY- APRIL. According to Bloomberg data, gasoline prices rise around 9.2% on average, which coincides with the refinery closures every year, as gasoline supplies to the market decline and push the prices higher.
PRICE ACTION:
- US GASOLINE HAS HAD A DOWNWARD CORRECTION OF AROUND 53% FROM ITS ALL- TIME HIGH OF 4.3216 (June, 2022). The price had fallen to $2.02 (December 2022), its lowest since December 2021. Gasoline was last trading around $2.6730, which could imply an upside of 61.67% to its recent all time high of 4.3216. The price, however, could decline further.
Gasoline, March 2, 2023
Current Price: 2.6730
|
Gasoline |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
3.2000 |
|
|
3.0000 |
|
|
2.8600 |
|
|
2.5000 |
|
|
2.3000 |
|
|
2.2000 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
GASOLINE |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
52,700.00 |
32,700.00 |
18,700.00 |
-17,300.00 |
-37,300.00 |
-47,300.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
49,841.59 |
30,926.37 |
17,685.72 |
-16,361.66 |
-35,276.87 |
-44,734.48 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
43,976.77 |
27,287.29 |
15,604.66 |
-14,436.40 |
-31,125.87 |
-39,470.61 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
72,001.90 |
44,676.70 |
25,549.06 |
-23,636.30 |
-50,961.50 |
-64,624.10 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:00 (GMT) 02/03/2023
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more detail