GOLD

GOLD weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:

GEOPOLITICS:

• US PRESIDENTAL DEBATE: DONALD TRUMP VS. KAMALA HARRIS (WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 11 AT 02:00 GMT+1). According to the Economic Times, as the 2024 presidential race enters its final stretch, the competition between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains tight and highly competitive. According to the Economic Times, as of September 2, Vice President Kamala Harris has edged out former President Donald Trump in several key polls. According to an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted between August 23-27, Harris leads Trump by a narrow margin of 50% to 46% among all adults and registered voters. The Wall Street Journal, Quinnipiac, and Suffolk/USA Today polls similarly show Harris ahead, with respective percentages of 48%, 49%, and 48%. In contrast, Trump stands at 47%, 48%, and 43% in these polls.

RECESSION FEARS CAME BACK, INCREASING DEMAND FOR THE SAFE- HAVEN GOLD:

• WEAKER THAN EXPECTED EMPLOYMENT MARKET IN THE USA: Most recent data in the US showed that unemployment is still high at 4.2%, while Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August showed fewer jobs than expected in August. The NFP has missed analysts’ expectations for two months in a row, increasing chances for aggressive interest rate cuts by the US Fed as fears over a potential recession have risen.
• WEAKER THAN EXPECTED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY IN THE USA: The US Manufactuing PMI has remaind in the contraction territory, below 50, for five months in a row, with August data missing analysts expectations yet again (47.2 vs. 47.5 expected).

EVENTS:

• WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 11 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US INFLATION (CPI) (AUGUST). US Inflaton rate currently stands at 2.9%. According to Bloomberg, August data on Wednesday could post a big decline to 2.6%. This could strength the case for aggressive interest rate cuts by the US Fed in the coming months, which would put negative pressure on the US Dollar, while Gold prices could go up. In addition, falling inflation by that magnitude could renew recession fears in the US as it would signify a slowdown in consumption and aggregate demand. This outcom oftentimes impacts the economic activity negatively and therefore economic recession fears could re- emerge. In times of financial distress, investors tend to purchase safe- haven assests such as Gold.

CENTRAL BANKS: INTEREST RATE CUT DECISION

• EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK INTEREST RATE DECISION (THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 12 AT 13:15 GMT+1). The European Central Bank is expcted to cut its rates, too. In September, the bank is expected to slash rates by 60 basis points to 3.65% from the current 4.25%. This would be its second cut in 2024.
• FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE DECISION (WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 18 AT 19:00 GMT+1). The most recent economic turmoil in the US raised chances that the Fed could cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, another 50 basis points in November and 25 basis points in December 2024. All in all, that could reduce interest rates from the current 5.5% (the highest in over 20 years) to 4.50%.
• BANK OF ENGLAND INTEREST RATE DECISION (THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19 AT 12:00 GMT+1). The Bank of England is expcted to keep cutting its rates, too. In September, the bank is expected to slash rates by 25 basis points to 4.75% from the current 5.00%. This would be its second cut in 2024.

ANALYST OPINION:

• Citigroup targets $3,000; Bank of America targets $3,000; Goldmans Sachs targets $2,700; JPMorgan targets $2,600; Morgan Stanley targets $2,650.

GOLD, September 10, 2024
Current Price:2500

Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units

2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:40 (GMT+1) 10/09/2024

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
• Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.