GOLD

GOLD weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:

GEOPOLITICS:

• MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS RISE AS NO CONCRETE DEALS HAVE BEEN MADE. The latest round of talks between the US and Iran has ended in Oman with no concrete agreements. Iran is still insisting on continuing its uranium enrichment program.
• RUSSIA – UKRAINE PEACE TALKS IN JEOPARDY: President Donald Trump has withdrawn the United States from formal peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Furthermore, both Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Russia’s Foreign Minister will not be attending the peace talks in Istanbul, Turkey.

CENTRAL BANKS INCREASE GOLD RESERVES:

• CHINA GOLD RESERVES UP TO 73.77 MILLION OUNCES IN APRIL: China has managed to increase its gold reserves from 73.70 million ounces in March to a new, 73.77 million ounces in April. This is their sixth consecutive increase of gold reserves on a monthly basis.
• CENTRAL BANKS GLOBALLY HAVE BEEN INCREASING GOLD RESERVES MUCH FASTER SINE 2021: Recent statistics from the World Gold Council have shown that Central Banks have been increasing their gold reserves by a total around 1,000 tons annually since 2021. This is up more than 100% compared to the ten-year average of around 350 tons in the period before 2021. Central Banks have continued increasing their gold reserves in 2025 as well.

EVENTS:

• TUESDAY, MAY 15, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) (APRIL): A lower-than-expected reading could be positive for gold, as it will motivate the FED to cut interest rates more aggressively. The PPI Index measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. Data for the previous month came in at 2.7% which was lower than the month before (3.2%).
• THURSDAY, MAY 15, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US RETAIL SALES (Monthly)(APRIL): U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in March with 1.4% increase vs 1.3% expected. If the results come in line with expectations or weaker, we could see a positive impact on gold prices due to a potentially weaker U.S. dollar. But the opposite scenario is also possible.
• THURSDAY, MAY 15, AT 13:40 GMT+1: FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL SPEAKS: The Chairman of the FED will hold a speech concerning overall monetary policy and perhaps its interest rate stances in the near future, which could prove influential towards the price of gold.

PRICE ACTION

• GOLD HIT A NEW ALL-TIME OF $3,499.76 (April 22, 2025). Gold has traded around $3,160, and if a full recovery takes place, the price of Gold could rise around $340. Although the price could decline as well.

ANALYSTS’ OPINION:

• J.P. MORGAN HAS A PRICE TARGET OF $3,675 (2025). Prices in 2026, by Q2, could rise to $4000; however, they could move in the opposite direction. By the end of Trump’s term, J.P. MORGAN anticipates gold to climb to $6000.
• GOLDMAN SACHS RAISED THE GOLD PRICE TARGET TO $3,700, FROM $3,300, WITH A TARGET RANGE OF $3,650 AND $3,950. UNDER EXTREME SCENARIOS, GOLD COULD RISE TO $4,500 BY THE END OF 2025. However, it could also move in the opposite direction.
• UBS RAISED GOLD PRICE TARGET TO $3,500 FROM $3,200. However, it could also move in the opposite direction.
• DEUTSCHE BANK HAS RAISED ITS GOLD PRICE TARGET TO $3,350 (Q4 2025) AND $3,700 (2026).

Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC

GOLD, May 15, 2025
Current Price: 3,160

Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:30 (GMT+1) 15/05/2025

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
• Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.