GOLD weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS:
- MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS RISE AS NO CONCRETE DEALS HAVE BEEN MADE, WHILE ISRAEL COULD BE PREPARING TO ATTACK IRANIAN NUCLEAR FACILITIES. The latest round of talks between the US and Iran has ended in Oman with no concrete agreements. Iran is still insisting on continuing its uranium enrichment program, while USA wants zero uranium enrichment from Iran. The next and fifth round of talks is expected to take place on May 24 and May 25 in Rome, Italy. In addition, CNN reported on Tuesday (May 20) that US has obtained intelligence suggesting that Israel is making preparations to strike Iranian nuclear facilities
- RUSSIA – UKRAINE PEACE TALKS IN JEOPARDY. Uncertainties remain high even after President Trump- President Putin phone call on May 19 as no breakthroughs have been announced. The phone call happened after a round of unsuccessful talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, Turkey on May 16, where there were no signs of a major breakthrough, neither.
CENTRAL BANKS INCREASE GOLD RESERVES:
- BREAKING (MAY 21): CHINA GOLD IMPORTS IN APRIL AT THE HIGHEST IN ONE YEAR. According to customs data released Tuesday (May 20), gold imports jumped 73% month-on-month to 127.5 metric tons in April, the highest level since May 2024. China is the 6th largest gold reserve holder in the world, after the USA, Germany, Italy, France and Russia. China has managed to increase its gold reserves 73.77 million ounces in April. This is their sixth consecutive increase of gold reserves on a monthly basis.
- CENTRAL BANKS GLOBALLY HAVE BEEN INCREASING GOLD RESERVES MUCH FASTER SINCE 2021: Recent statistics from the World Gold Council have shown that Central Banks have been increasing their gold reserves by a total around 1,000 tons annually since 2021. This is up more than 100% compared to the ten-year average of around 350 tons in the period before 2021. Central Banks have continued increasing their gold reserves in 2025 as well.
EVENTS:
- THURSDAY, MAY 22, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US WEEKLY INITIALL JOBLESS CLAIMS: A higher-than-expected reading should be taken as positive for Gold, because it will motivate the FED to cut interest rates more aggressively. This data measures the number of individuals who filled for unemployment for the first time during the past week. The results for the previous week were 229K which was the same as for the week before.
- THURSDAY, MAY 22, AT 14:45 GMT+1: US S&P MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (PMI) (MAY): A lower-than-expected reading should be supportive for Gold, because it will signal more interest rate cuts by the FED in order to stimulate economic activity. This index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector.
- THURSDAY, MAY 29, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) (Q1) second reading: A lower-than-expected reading should be supportive for Gold, because it will motivate the FED to cut interest rates more aggressively. This data represents the inflation adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. The preliminary (first reading out of total three) results for Q1 were -0.3%, which was lower than the quarter before (GDP (Q4): 2.4%).
ANALYSTS’ OPINION:
- J.P. MORGAN has a price target of $3,675 (2025). Prices in 2026, by Q2, could rise to $4000; however, they could move in the opposite direction. By the end of Trump’s term, J.P. MORGAN anticipates gold to climb to $6000.
- GOLDMAN SACHS raised the gold price target to $3,700, from $3,300, with a target range of $3,650 and $3,950. Under extreme scenarios, gold price could rise to $4,500 by the end of 2025. However, it could also move in the opposite direction.
- UBS raised gold price target to $3,500 from $3,200. However, it could also move in the opposite direction.
- DEUTSCHE BANK has raised its gold price target to $3,350 (Q4 2025) and $3,700 (2026).
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC
PRICE ACTION:
- GOLD HIT A NEW ALL-TIME OF $3,499.76 (April 22, 2025). Gold has traded around $3,305, and if a full recovery takes place, the price of Gold could rise around $195. Although the price could decline as well.
GOLD, May 21, 2025
Current Price: 3,305
|
GOLD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
3,700 |
|
|
3,500 |
|
|
3,400 |
|
|
3,220 |
|
|
3,210 |
|
|
3,200 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
GOLD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
39,500 |
19,500 |
9,500 |
-8,500 |
-9,500 |
-10,500 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
34,893 |
17,226 |
8,392 |
-7,509 |
-8,392 |
-9,275 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
29,469 |
14,548 |
7,088 |
-6,341 |
-7,088 |
-7,834 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
54,866 |
27,086 |
13,196 |
-11,807 |
-13,196 |
-14,585 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:45 (GMT+1) 21/05/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.