GOLD weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: RUSSIA – UKRAINE WAR
- EVENT (MONDAY, JULY 14): U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP TO SPEAK ON RUSSIA AND POSSIBLY ANNOUNCE NEW SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA. According to Bloomberg and SeekingAlpha, President Donald Trump will make a “major statement” on Russia on Monday (July 14). President Trump has repeated his criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin. He also expressed confidence that the US Senate will pass a tough new sanctions bill targeting Russia.
GEOPOLITICS: POTENTIAL TRADE CONFLICTS FLARE UP AGAIN
- BREAKING (JULY 8): U.S. TO IMPOSE 50% TARIFFS ON COPPER IMPORTS. Trade tensions increase insecurity, which in turn increases the demand for Gold as a safe-haven instrument. US President Donald Trump said that he will impose 50% tariffs on copper imports, which are expected to take effect within the next 30 days.
- BREAKING (JULY 11): U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP RAISES POTENTIAL TARIFFS ON CANADA. The US President announced that he will implement tariffs of 35% on Canadian goods if an agreement is not reached by August 1. A possibility for 15-20% blanket tariffs on other trading partners that have not made a trade deal with the US is now being considered.
GEOPOLITICS: US TAX CUT BILL
- BREAKING (JULY 4): U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SIGNED THE NEW TAX BILL INTO LAW. The new “Big Beautiful Bill” has been signed into law, cutting taxes and increasing in the mid to long term US debt and budget deficits.
- ANALYSTS’ OPINION: The bill is expected to provide tax cuts of 4.5 trillion dollars, and provide the US the possibility to increase their debt by another, near, 4 trillion dollars. The measure could be expected to put negative pressure on the US dollar, which in turn provides support to the gold prices.
EVENTS:
- TUESDAY, JULY 15, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US INFLATION (CPI) (JUNE). A lower than expected reading should be taken as positive for Gold, as it will increase the odds of a future interest rate cut by the FED. This data measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. The data for the previous month was 2.4% which was higher than the month before (2.3%).
- THURSDAY, JULY 17, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US RETAIL SALES (JUNE): A lower than expected reading should be positive for Gold, because it could point to the FED cutting interest rates sooner in order to stimulate economic activity. This data measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. The results for the previous month stands at 3.29% which was lower than the month before 5.00%.
PRICE ACTION:
- GOLD HIT A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF $3,499.76 (April 22, 2025): Gold has traded around $3,350, and if a full recovery takes place, the price of Gold could rise around $150. Although the price could decline as well.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- SUPPORT AREA BETWEEN $3,300 AND $3,200: Gold prices have seen near-term support at $3,300, and an extended support level at $3,200, meaning the area between $3,300 and $3,200 altogether acts as a near-term support area.
- LONG–TERM UPTREND: As depicted by the daily chart below, the gold price has kept trading above the long-term blue uptrend line, confirming its long-term trend is up. However, there remains a risk of a potential breakout below this level if market conditions change.
- 100- DAY MOVING AVERAGE POINTS TO AN UPTREND: The 100-Day Moving Averages points to an uptrend as the gold price has remained steady above it. If, however, the gold price falls below the 100- day moving average, then its trend change to negative.
GRAPH (Daily): January 2025 – July 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
GOLD, JULY 11, 2025.
Current Price: 3,350
|
GOLD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
3,500 |
|
|
3,450 |
|
|
3,400 |
|
|
3,310 |
|
|
3,300 |
|
|
3,290 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
GOLD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
15,000 |
10,000 |
5,000 |
-4,000 |
-5,000 |
-6,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
12,837 |
8,558 |
4,279 |
-3,423 |
-4,279 |
-5,135 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
11,114 |
7,409 |
3,705 |
-2,964 |
-3,705 |
-4,446 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
20,543 |
13,695 |
6,848 |
-5,478 |
-6,848 |
-8,217 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 14:10 (GMT+1) 11/07/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.