GOLD weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
CHINA AND USA TRADE: POSSIBLE NEW TRADE CONFLICT?
- BREAKING (OCTOBER 10): US PRESIDENT TRUMP THREATENS NEW TARIFFS ON CHINA. Rising geo-political tensions increase safe-haven demand for Gold. US President Trump threatened additional 100% tariffs on China, totaling to 130% on a post on his platform Truth Social. The tariffs are set to start on November 1.
USA: GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN ENTERED ITS 13TH DAY (October 13, 2025)
- BREAKING (WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1 AT 05:00 AM GMT+1): US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN BEGAN WITH NO DEAL IN SIGHT. According to Reuters, U.S. President Donald Trump and his Democratic opponents made no progress in ending the government shutdown. Without passage of funding legislation, parts of the government have remained closed since Wednesday (October 1). With the government shutdown, the majority of government economic data is not being published, motivating the FED to further intensify its interest rate cut cycle, which could provide additional support for Gold prices.
EVENTS:
- THURSDAY, OCTOBER 14 AT 17:20 GMT+1: FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL SPEAKS. The Chairman is set to speak at the National Association for Business Economics in Philadelphia on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy. Any parts of his speech that point directly or indirectly to the FED’s interest rate cut cycle extending or intensifying could prove supportive for Gold.
- FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US INFLATION (CPI) (SEPTEMBER). Despite the ongoing US government shutdown, latest reports have said that US inflation data could be still released, with the office workers expected to work harder to get the data out. In August, US inflation rose to 2.90%, up from July’s 2.70%. This would be the last inflation report before Fed’s interest rate decision on October 29.
US FEDERAL RESERVE:
- BREAKING (SEPTEMBER 17): US FEDERAL RESERVE CUT INTEREST RATE TO 4.25% FROM 4.50%, ITS FIRST INTEREST RATE CUT SINCE DECEMBER 2024. The Federal Reserve policymakers said they expect to see 2 more rate cuts by the end of 2025, to slash current rates to 3.75%.
- NEXT FEDERAL RESERVE MEETING AND INTEREST RATE DECISION: October 29. Interest rates could be further cut to 4.00%.
- DECEMBER 10: The US Federal Reserve is expected to finish the year 2025 by cutting the rates to 3.75% on December 10.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- SUPPORT: $4,000 - $3,950. After hitting fresh all-time highs ($4,079.58), gold prices have formed a psychological support level between $4000 and $3950. However, there remains a risk of a potential breakout below this level if market conditions change.
- UPTREND SINCE JANUARY 2025: Gold prices have been trading in an uptrend since January 2025. Since the beginning of January 2025, Gold prices have risen by around 56%. However, a shift in direction remains possible.
- ANALYSTS’ OPINION: Goldman Sachs forecasts $4,900; J.P. Morgan forecasts $4,200 - $4,500; UBS forecasts $4,200; Julius Baer forecasts $4,500; TD Securities forecasts $4,400.
GRAPH (Daily): January 2025 – October 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
GOLD, October 13, 2025.
Current Price: 4,070
|
GOLD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
4,500 |
|
|
4,350 |
|
|
4,200 |
|
|
3,970 |
|
|
3,960 |
|
|
3,950 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
GOLD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
43,000 |
28,000 |
13,000 |
-10,000 |
-11,000 |
-12,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
37,088 |
24,150 |
11,213 |
-8,625 |
-9,488 |
-10,350 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
32,260 |
21,007 |
9,753 |
-7,502 |
-8,253 |
-9,003 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
60,200 |
39,200 |
18,200 |
-14,000 |
-15,400 |
-16,800 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 08:00 (GMT+1) 13/10/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.