NATURAL GAS weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
NATURAL GAS GLOBAL MARKETS:
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LARGEST NATURAL GAS SUPPLIER IN THE WORLD (LNG + PIPELINE): 1. RUSSIA (173.81 million tons); 2. USA; 3. QATAR; 4. NORWAY; 5. AUSTRALIA;
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LARGEST NATURAL GAS IMPORTER IN THE WORLD: CHINA (121.99 million tons)
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CHINA’S LARGEST NATURAL GAS SUPPLIER: 1. AUSTRALIA (~26%); 2. TURKMENISTAN (~20%); 3. RUSSIA (~10%).
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E.U. IMPORTS 45% OF NEEDED NATURAL GAS FROM RUSSIA (OF TOTAL 251.44 million tons): 113 million tons (average daily consumption: 32.85 million tons).
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RUSSIA EXPORTS TO THE E.U. ACCOUNTS FOR 65% OF TOTAL EXPORTS: 113 million tons of 173.81 goes to the E.U.
RUSSIA- UKRAINE WAR:
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GEOPOLITICS (RUSSIA- UKRAINE WAR): President Vladimir Putin announced an attack on Ukraine on February 24, days after he recognized two breakaway regions of Russia’s neighbor as independent. Attacks are occurring in Kyiv, Odessa, Mariupol and other locations in Ukraine.
ECONOMIC WAR AND SANCTIONS:
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BREAKING (MAY 12): RUSSIA IMPOSES SANCTIONS ON YAMA- EUROPE NATURAL GAS PIPELINE VIA POLAND THAT GETS TO GERMANY. Moscow has imposed sanctions on the owner of the Polish part of the Yamal pipeline that carries Russian gas to Europe, as well as the former German unit of the Russian gas producer Gazprom, whose subsidiaries service Europe's gas consumption.
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BREAKING (MAY 11): PART OF NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES VIA UKRAINE TO EUROPE STOPPED: Ukraine said it will stop operations with the Sokhranivka transit on May 11.
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BREAKING (MAY 4): EU PROPOSED A PHASED- OUT (Gradual) BAN ON RUSSIAN OIL. The phasing out of Russian crude oil will be within six months and refined products by the end of the year. Germany said it is ready to stop purchases of oil and natural gas from Russia on its own.
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BREAKING (APRIL 27): RUSSIA STOPS NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES TO POLAND AND BULGARIA. Poland's gas supply contract with energy giant Gazprom is for 10.2 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year, and covers about 50% of national consumption.
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BREAKING (MARCH 31): RUSSIA PRESIDENT PUTIN SIGNED A DEECRE DEMANDING RUBLE- PAYMENT FORM GAS. Payments to start April 1, 2022.
CURRENT:
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NEWS: Demand for Natural Gas rises in the US due to hot temperatures as plants use natural gas to cool temperatures.
HISTORICAL PRICE SHOCKS WITH NATURAL GAS:
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PRICE HISTORY (Bloomberg): The Natural Gas prices rose to a record high of 15.780 in 2005. After a pull- back, the Natural Gas prices rose again in 2008 to test the level of 13.694. Natural gas trades around 8.00, and if a full recovery to 2005 highs happens, this could provide an increase of around 97%.
Natural Gas, May 17, 2022
Current Price: 8.000
|
Natural Gas |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
15.780 |
|
|
13.694 |
|
|
9.000 |
|
|
7.100 |
|
|
6.800 |
|
|
6.500 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
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NATURAL GAS |
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Pivot Points |
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Profit or loss in $ |
77,800.00 |
56,940.00 |
10,000.00 |
-9,000.00 |
-12,000.00 |
-15,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
74,369.34 |
54,429.18 |
9,559.04 |
-8,603.14 |
-11,470.85 |
-14,338.56 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
62,615.69 |
45,826.96 |
8,048.29 |
-7,243.46 |
-9,657.95 |
-12,072.43 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
99,752.05 |
73,006.19 |
12,821.60 |
-11,539.44 |
-15,385.92 |
-19,232.40 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:00 (GMT+1) 17/05/2022
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
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You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
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Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more detail