NATURAL GAS weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
NATURAL GAS GLOBAL MARKETS:
- LARGEST NATURAL GAS SUPPLIER IN THE WORLD (LNG + PIPELINE): 1. RUSSIA (173.81 million tons); 2. USA; 3. QATAR; 4. NORWAY; 5. AUSTRALIA;
- LARGEST NATURAL GAS IMPORTER IN THE WORLD: CHINA (121.99 million tons)
- CHINA’S LARGEST NATURAL GAS SUPPLIER: 1. AUSTRALIA (~26%); 2. TURKMENISTAN (~20%); 3. RUSSIA (~10%).
- E.U. IMPORTS 45% OF NEEDED NATURAL GAS FROM RUSSIA (OF TOTAL 251.44 million tons): 113 million tons (average daily consumption: 32.85 million tons).
- RUSSIA EXPORTS TO THE E.U. ACCOUNTS FOR 65% OF TOTAL EXPORTS: 113 million tons of 173.81 goes to the E.U.
CURRENT
- Natural Gas fell on expectations for warmer temperatures in the first half of January, 2023. Bomb cyclone formed over the Pacific Ocean arrived in California bringing heavy rain, strong winds and snow. According to the newest weather forecasts, colder weather is set to spread across the continent by February, which should trigger significantly higher demand for Natural Gas.
- Worries about decrease of Russian oil supply can send natural gas demand higher as an effective alternative to oil. European Union energy ministers reached an agreement to cap the price of the month-ahead Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures contract when it reaches 180 euros/MWh, or about $56/MMBtu, for three days. This measure designed to prevent extreme price swings — will apply for one year from Feb. 15.
- IEA forecast production to grow slightly in 2023, averaging between 100 Bcf/d and 101 Bcf/d for the year, about 2% more than in 2022. Production in their forecast for the first half of 2023 is limited by pipeline constraints and declining natural gas prices.
- The US Energy Information Administration on Jan. 5 announced another drawdown of 221B bcf for the week ended Dec.30 which was 7% below the five-year average. Frigid temperatures across the US caused a simultaneous spike in heating demand and freeze-off reduced gas production across multiple basins which was the reason for more-than-430 Bcf drawdown from inventory over the last two weeks of December.
PRICE ACTION: The Natural Gas prices rose to a record high of $15.780 in 2005. Currently is moving around $3.85 and if a full recovery to 2005 highs happens, this could provide an increase of around 309.87%. However, it could go lower.
NATURAL GAS, January 09, 2023
Current Price: 3.85
|
NATURAL GAS |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
7.00 |
|
|
6.00 |
|
|
4.70 |
|
|
3.15 |
|
|
2.80 |
|
|
2.4 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
31,500.00 |
21,500.00 |
8,500.00 |
-7,000.00 |
-10,500.00 |
-14,500.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
29,476.44 |
20,118.84 |
7,953.96 |
-6,550.32 |
-9,825.48 |
-13,568.52 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
25,946.75 |
17,709.68 |
7,001.50 |
-5,765.94 |
-8,648.92 |
-11,943.74 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
42,138.65 |
28,761.30 |
11,370.75 |
-9,364.15 |
-14,046.22 |
-19,397.16 |
1. 1 lot is equivalent of 10,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:15 (GMT) 9/1/2023
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
· You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
· Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more details