NATURAL GAS weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
NATURAL GAS GLOBAL MARKETS:
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LARGEST NATURAL GAS SUPPLIER IN THE WORLD (LNG + PIPELINE): 1. RUSSIA (173.81 million tons); 2. USA; 3. QATAR; 4. NORWAY; 5. AUSTRALIA;
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LARGEST NATURAL GAS IMPORTER IN THE WORLD: CHINA (121.99 million tons)
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CHINA’S LARGEST NATURAL GAS SUPPLIER: 1. AUSTRALIA (~26%); 2. TURKMENISTAN (~20%); 3. RUSSIA (~10%).
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E.U. IMPORTS 45% OF NEEDED NATURAL GAS FROM RUSSIA (OF TOTAL 251.44 million tons): 113 million tons (average daily consumption: 32.85 million tons).
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RUSSIA EXPORTS TO THE E.U. ACCOUNTS FOR 65% OF TOTAL EXPORTS: 113 million tons of 173.81 goes to the E.U.
CURRENT:
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Weather remains a key determinant of the path of prices. US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast that most of the country will experience colder-than-average temperatures for the next 6 to 10 days. A particularly cold winter could force demand much higher, because natural gas is used for heating and electricity.
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The U.S.Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an injection of 64 Bcf natural gas into storage for the week ended Nov. 11.
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The EIA reported that natural gas inventories rose +64 bcf last week, below expectations of +66 bcf.
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Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said temperatures are expected to be well below normal over the eastern half of the U.S. from Nov 21-26. Updated U.S. weather forecasts have shifted "significantly colder," which will boost heating demand for nat-gas.
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The Freeport export terminal was shut down after an explosion on June 8. Freeport expects the facility to return to at least partial service as the company reached an agreement with a federal regulator that will allow it to resume some operations by the end of November.
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BOTHE NORD STREAM 1 AND 2 ARE SERIOUSLY DAMAGED IN EXPLOSIONS WHICH IS BELIEVED TO BE SABOTAGE. (September 26) Several European Union states have triggered emergency plans while they are trying to find alternative supplies, while Britain now faces a "significant risk" of gas shortages this winter.
PRICE ACTION: The Natural Gas prices rose to a record high of $15.780 in 2005. Currently is moving around $6.12 and if a full recovery to 2005 highs happens, this could provide an increase of around 144.6%.
NATURAL GAS, November 18, 2022
Current Price: 6.13
|
NATURAL GAS |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
9.00 |
|
|
8.00 |
|
|
7.00 |
|
|
5.30 |
|
|
4.70 |
|
|
4.00 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
28,700.00 |
18,700.00 |
8,700.00 |
-8,300.00 |
-14,300.00 |
-21,300.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
27,638.54 |
18,008.39 |
8,378.23 |
-7,993.03 |
-13,771.12 |
-20,512.23 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
24,045.41 |
15,667.22 |
7,289.03 |
-6,953.90 |
-11,980.81 |
-17,845.55 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
38,271.31 |
24,936.36 |
11,601.41 |
-11,068.01 |
-19,068.98 |
-28,403.44 |
- 1 lot is equivalent of 10,000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 12:30 (GMT+1) 18/11/2022
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more details