NATURAL GAS weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
NATURAL GAS GLOBAL MARKETS:
- LARGEST NATURAL GAS SUPPLIER IN THE WORLD (LNG + PIPELINE): 1. RUSSIA (173.81 million tons); 2. USA; 3. QATAR; 4. NORWAY; 5. AUSTRALIA;
- LARGEST NATURAL GAS IMPORTER IN THE WORLD: CHINA (121.99 million tons)
- CHINA’S LARGEST NATURAL GAS SUPPLIER: 1. AUSTRALIA (~26%); 2. TURKMENISTAN (~20%); 3. RUSSIA (~10%).
- E.U. IMPORTS 45% OF NEEDED NATURAL GAS FROM RUSSIA (OF TOTAL 251.44 million tons): 113 million tons (average daily consumption: 32.85 million tons).
- RUSSIA EXPORTS TO THE E.U. ACCOUNTS FOR 65% OF TOTAL EXPORTS: 113 million tons of 173.81 goes to the E.U.
CURRENT
- According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the US could be expected to see colder temperatures as the probability has risen since the beginning of the year that temperatures will go below normal as we are approaching the end of January and the beginning of February.
- With China reopening its demand for Natural gas will rise. After 11% fall in 2022 analysts expect full recovery to 2021 levels in 2023. During 2022 China’s imports fell from 170Bcm to 150.7 Bcm in 2022.
- IEA (International Energy Administration) warns the EU could face almost 30 Bcm shortage in 2023. If China reopens and increases its demand to 2021 levels and pipeline imports from Russia stop, it would be extremely difficult for Europe to overcome the gas shortages.
- The Dutch government aims to close Groningen, Europe’s largest natural gas field this year as it becomes very dangerous to keep operating it due to the land tremors. It already works at lower capacities and producing more than 5 Bcm would exacerbate the risk of seismic activity in the area. At its peak Groningen was pumping out 50 Bcm.
- EIA forecast dry natural gas production to grow in 2023, averaging between 100 Bcf/d and 101 Bcf/d for the year, about 2% more than in 2022. LNG exports are expected to average a little over 12.3bcf/day in 2023, up from an estimated 10.8bcf/day in 2022.
- For the week ending Jan. 20 the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expecting 82 Bcf withdrawal in natural gas storage inventories.
- Freeport LNG confirmed that repairs had been completed at its liquefied natural gas export facility, which has been offline since June, and that a request to restart by introducing LNG to the piping system had been filed with regulators.
- EIA forecast the Natural Gas price to average $5/MMBtuin the first quarter of 2023. Both winter weather and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports at near-capacity volumes will lead to greater natural gas demand, which will result in higher prices in the United States. A
PRICE ACTION: Natural Gas prices rose to a record high of $15.780 in 2005. The most recent peak was in August of 2022 when the price reached $10.28. Currently it is moving around $2.7 and if a full recovery to 2022 highs happens, this could provide an increase of around 271.4%. However, it could go lower.
NATURAL GAS, January 26, 2023
Current Price: 2.70
|
NATURAL GAS |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
5.00 |
|
|
4.00 |
|
|
3.30 |
|
|
2.20 |
|
|
1.90 |
|
|
1.70 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
23,000.00 |
13,000.00 |
6,000.00 |
-5,000.00 |
-8,000.00 |
-10,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
21,107.70 |
11,930.44 |
5,506.36 |
-4,588.63 |
-7,341.81 |
-9,177.26 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
18,573.78 |
10,498.22 |
4,845.33 |
-4,037.78 |
-6,460.44 |
-8,075.55 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
30,831.16 |
17,426.31 |
8,042.91 |
-6,702.43 |
-10,723.88 |
-13,404.85 |
1. 1 lot is equivalent of 10,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:45 (GMT) 26/01/2023
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
· You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
· Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more details