NETFLIX (#NFLX) weekly special report based On 1 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL STREAMING:
- STREAMING MARKET: Netflix, Amazon Prime, HBO Max and Disney+ are the biggest market leaders.
- MARKET SHARE BY COMPANY BY SUBSCRIBERS: According to data spread across the biggest players, Netflix holds the lead (34.98%), followed by Amazon Prime (31.60%) and Disney+ (21.76%). Those four streamers have in total 632.9 million subscribers, with Netflix possessing 221.4 million subscribers.
NETFLIX
- THE COMPANY: Netflix is known for its huge database of movies and series. The company accounted for 40% of consumer demand for original content last year, more than the next five streaming services combined, and Netflix produced 13 of the top 15 original streaming programs.
- NETFLIX BEGAN WITH ADVERTISING SUPPORTED PLAN IN NOVEMBER. While the company eschewed advertising for years, its recent launch of an ad-support service significantly expands its total addressable market. It will cost $6.99/month (30% less than the regular single-stream Netflix Basic plan at $9.99). Branded TV advertising is estimated to be a $180 billion market in the 190 countries in which Netflix operates.
- NETFLIX CUT PRICES IN MORE THAN 30 COUNTRIES by a minimum of 18% and up to 60.1%, as it attempts to attract more subscribers. Prices have been cut in parts of Asia, Europe, Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East.
- CURRENT NUMBER OF PAYING SUBSCRIBERS (Q4,2022): 231 million up 4% over the year.
OTHER EVENTS AND ANALYSIS:
EVENT (APRIL 18, AFTERMARKET): Q1 EARNINGS REPORT. The company is expected to earn $2.82 a share on sales of $8.17 billion. Analysts were looking for earnings of $2.98 a share on sales of $8.15 billion. Analysts expect the company to add 4.69M new subscribers in Q1.
In the fourth quarter, Netflix added 7.66 million vs 4.57 million expected new subscribers worldwide to a total of 230.75 million. Netflix stock jumped 8.5% on the first trading day after it posted Q4 results.
- PRICE ACTION: THE STOCK HAS HAD A DOWNWARD CORRECTION OF AROUND 77% FROM ITS ALL-TIME HIGH OF $700.11 (November 17, 2021). The stock has fallen to its lowest rate since 2017 to $162.37 (May 12, 2022). Netflix was last trading around $336, and if a full recovery follows recent all- time highs, the stock could see an upside of around 108%. Since the beginning of the year, the price is up around 14%. However, the price could decline further.
- ANALYSTS OPINION: Cowen forecasts $440, Wolfe Research forecasts $417, Jefferies forecasts $415 and Wedbush forecasts $410.
NETFLIX (#NFLX), April 10, 2023
Current Price:336.50
|
Netflix |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
480.00 |
|
|
440.00 |
|
|
370.00 |
|
|
305.00 |
|
|
295.00 |
|
|
290.00 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
143,500.00 |
103,500.00 |
33,500.00 |
-31,500.00 |
-41,500.00 |
-46,500.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
132,008.04 |
95,211.37 |
30,817.21 |
-28,977.37 |
-38,176.54 |
-42,776.12 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
115,956.32 |
83,634.00 |
27,069.94 |
-25,453.83 |
-33,534.41 |
-37,574.69 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
194,050.03 |
139,959.43 |
45,300.88 |
-42,596.35 |
-56,119.00 |
-62,880.32 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:50(GMT) 10/04/2023
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