NIO Inc. (#NIO) weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
CHINA EV MARKETS:
- CHINA LEADS THE WAY: EV MAKES AROUND 13% OF THE CAR MARKET IN CHINA, UP FROM 3.5% IN 2020: More than half of the total electric vehicles (EVs) sold worldwide last year (including plug-in hybrids) went to buyers in China. China led global EV growth in 2021 as sales nearly tripled (UP 277%) to 3.4 million (from 0.9 million in 2020). Total number of cars sold in 2021 in China was 26.28 million, and EV made around 13% of the market. Tesla is the largest EV in China, holding some 14% of the markets, followed by GM’s Wulling (~11.8%), BYD (~10%) and NIO with 2.7%.
- CHINA’S EV MARKETS EXPECTED TO GROW BY 61.76% in 2022 TO 5.5 MILLION VEHICLES. Globally, the EV markets are expected to grow from 6.5 million to 9.75 million units in 2022, which is an increase of around 50%. In China, the estimates say that around 25 million cars in total will be sold. The EV would make up around 20% of the total car markets.
- ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN CHINA ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE UP 40% OF CHINA’S CAR SALES BY 2030. Total car sales are expected to to grow to 38 million in 2030, while around 15 million (or 40%) to be Electric Vehicles.
MACRO INFORMATION:
- CHINA REOPENING IN 2023. In recent days, major cities across China have continued to loosen the severest of COVID measures. Travel has picked up and China authorities said that will remove quarantines for inbound travelers starting January 8, which is the last, severe measure of COVID- 19 zero policy.
- CHINA STOCKS AVOID US STOCK EXCHANGE DELISTING. The U.S. accounting watchdog on Thursday said it has full access to inspect and investigate firms in China for the first time ever, removing the risk that around 200 Chinese companies could be kicked off U.S. stock exchanges. The statement from the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) marks a victory for U.S. regulators and a relief for Chinese firms, including Alibaba, facing delisting amid rocky relations between the world's largest economies.
NIO:
- THE COMPANY: Nio offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. It currently sells the ES8 and ES6 electric SUVs, and a new EC6 electric crossover. In early January 2021 they revealed their new sedan ET7, to selling in 2022. On December 18, 2021, they revealed a cheaper sedan ET5. They also announced a new model in mid-2022, that of ES7. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
- NIO DAY (DECEMBER 24, 2022). It announced a new model and an improved version of its flagship SUV, among other things. NEW MODELS: The coupe SUV named EC7 and the improved ES8.
- NIO IS ENTERING NETHERLANDS, DENMARK, SWEDEN AND GERMANY. Some models are available for orders immediately.
- NIO CAR SALES TO GROW ON AVERAGE 52.30% ANNUALLY BETWEEN 2022 AND 2025. Nio delivered 91,429 vehicles in 2021, and that number is expected to jump to at least 469,687 in 2025.
- NIO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE 4.34% OF THE GLOBAL EV MARKET BY 2025 (UP FROM 1.78% IN 2021). Revenue outlook rises from 2021’s $5.14 billion to $24.67 billion in 2025 per year (increase of 379%).
EVENTS AND ANALYSIS:
- NEXT EVENT (EXPECTED: JANUARY 1): DECEMBER AND Q4 CAR DELIVERY DATA. In November, NIO delivered 14,178 cars (record monthly high). This is 30.3% higher than the same period last year, and 40.9% higher than October 2022 (10,059). So far this year, NIO has delivered 106,671 cars, UP 31.8% from the same period last year. NIO plans to further accelerate the production and delivery in December 2022.
- ANALYST OPINION: Morgan Stanley target is at $16.10 on the stock. Barclays forecasts at $18 a share. JP Morgan targets $14 a share. Goldman Sachs set a target price of $26 a share. Deutsche Bank target $21 a share. Bloomberg’s Analyst Consensus forecast is $17.75.
- PRICE ACTION: THE STOCK HAS HAD A DOWNWARD CORRECTION OF AROUND 88.18% FROM ITS ALL- TIME HIGH OF $66.85 (January, 2021). The stock has fallen to its lowest rate since July 2020 to $7.90 (October 24, 2022). NIO was last trading around $9.50, and if a full recovery follows recent all- time highs, the stock could see an upside of around 604%. However, it could go lower.
NIO Inc. (#NIO), December 30, 2022
Current Price: 9.50
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NIO Inc. |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
20.00 |
|
|
17.00 |
|
|
13.00 |
|
|
7.00 |
|
|
6.50 |
|
|
6.00 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
NIO |
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Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
10,500 |
7,500 |
3,500 |
-2,500 |
-3,000 |
-3,500 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
9,855 |
7,039 |
3,285 |
-2,346 |
-2,816 |
-3,285 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
8,733 |
6,238 |
2,911 |
-2,079 |
-2,495 |
-2,911 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
14,225 |
10,161 |
4,742 |
-3,387 |
-4,064 |
-4,742 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:00 (GMT) 30/12/2022
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