Palladium weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
PALLADIUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:
- Palladium is mostly used in catalytic converters by the car industry to reduce harmful gas emission, while tightening regulation is forcing auto makers to put more of Palladium into each vehicle, which in turn could keep demand outlook positive. Palladium has also been used in fuel cells to generate power.
- MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia is the largest producer holding 43% of the markets, while South Africa is the second largest with 33.00% of the markets. Canada is third on the list with 9.5% of the global production.
- MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): China is the largest Palladium consumer with 31%, while Europe and North America (USA) hold 20% each. Japan stands at 11%.
CHINA:
- NEW STIMULUS PACKAGES IN Q3 AND Q4 OF 2023: The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said it lowered the rate on 401 billion yuan ($55.25 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions by 15 basis points to 2.50% from 2.65% previously. The central bank also injected 204 billion yuan through seven-day reverse repos while cutting borrowing costs by 10 basis points to 1.80% from 1.90% previously.
- CHINA REOPENS ITS ECONOMY (2023): China’s COVID-Zero policy has ended. The Chinese government is no longer ordering lockdowns and quarantines. China’s Vice Premier Liu He said the economy could rise to its pre-COVID growth trends in 2023.
- CHINA CAR SALES: Sales in the first 10 months of 2023 rose 3% year-on-year to 17.46 million units.
UPCOMING DATA RELEASE:
China economic data will be closely watched into year-end as investors are eager to see if the Chinese economy will be able to end the new 2024 year stronger. Analysts expect the following data to have impact on commodities, and Palladium in particular:
- December 31 at 01:30 GMT: CHINA MANUFACTURING AND SERVICES PMI (DECEMBER)
PRICE ACTION:
- PALLADIUM TRADES 67% BELOW ITS ALL- TIME HIGH OF $3409. Palladium currently trades around $1130, and if a full recovery followed to its recent all-time high, this could be an upside of around 202%. However, it could also decline further.
- ANALYST OPINION: Bloomberg Consensus sees a price of $1300 in 2024. This represents an upside of little over 15% from current. However, it could also decline further.
TECHICAL REVIEW:
- SUPPORT AREA AT $900-$1000: The area between 1000 and 900 was last time challenged back in 2018 as Palladium traded within that range for almost a year.
- BREAKING: PALLADIUM HAS TESTED ITS LOWEST PRICE SINCE AUGUST 2018 ($924).
GRAPH (Weekly): Palladium
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
PALLADIUM, December 15, 2023
Current Price:1130
|
PALLADIUM |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
2000 |
|
|
1600 |
|
|
1300 |
|
|
1000 |
|
|
950 |
|
|
900 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
87,000.00 |
47,000.00 |
17,000.00 |
-13,000.00 |
-18,000.00 |
-23,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
79,380.29 |
42,883.60 |
15,511.09 |
-11,861.42 |
-16,423.51 |
-20,985.59 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
68,241.18 |
36,865.93 |
13,334.48 |
-10,196.96 |
-14,118.87 |
-18,040.77 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
116,379.03 |
62,871.43 |
22,740.73 |
-17,389.97 |
-24,078.42 |
-30,766.87 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:00 (GMT+1) 15/12/2023
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more details.