Palladium

Palladium weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

• UPTREND SINCE MID-APRIL 2025: As shown in the daily chart below, palladium has been in a steady uptrend, supported by a rising diagonal trendline (orange) since mid-April. However, the price could decline.
• DAILY MOVING AVERAGES: Price is trading well above the 20-day (red), 50-day (blue), and 100-day (green) moving averages, confirming strong bullish momentum and healthy trend structure.
• PALLADIUM HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH OF $3,409 (March 2022): Palladium price has traded around $1259, and if a full recovery takes place, the price of palladium could see an upside of around 170%. Although the price could decline as well.

GRAPH (Daily): November 2024 – July 2025

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

PALLADIUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:

• Palladium is mostly used in catalytic converters by the car industry to reduce harmful gas emissions, while tightening regulations are forcing automakers to put more Palladium into each vehicle, which in turn could keep the demand outlook positive.
• MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia is the largest producer, holding 43% of the market, while South Africa is the second largest with 33.00% of the market.
• MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): China is the largest Palladium consumer with 31%, while Europe and North America (USA) hold 20% each.

USA: PRESIDENT TRUMP’S BIG TAX CUT BILL SIGNED INTO LAW (JULY 4, 2025)

• TRADITIONAL CAR MAKERS THAT USE PALLADIUM TO BENEFIT: According to CNBC, the new tax cut bill would end tax breaks (subsidies) for consumers who buy or lease Electric Vehicles (EVs) after September 30, 2025. This could decrease consumer demand for Electric Vehicles, pushing consumers towards cars that run on petrol or diesel.

US-CHINA THIRD ROUND OF TRADE TALKS PROGRESS AND OPTIMISM

• EVENT (EXPECTED: MONDAY, JULY 28 AND TUESDAY, JULY 29): U.S.-CHINA THIRD ROUND OF TRADE TALKS IN STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN: U.S. and Chinese officials are set to meet in Stockholm to discuss a potential extension of their trade deal negotiations, which currently face an August 12 deadline. Any signs of a breakthrough could boost market sentiment and support demand for industrial commodities like palladium, which benefits from improved global trade flows and stronger manufacturing outlooks, particularly in the automotive sector.

GEOPOLITICS: RUSSIA – UKRAINE WAR

• BREAKING (MONDAY, JULY 14): US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP THREATENED 100% TARIFFS ON RUSSIAN GOODS AND HIGH SECONDARY TARIFFS FOR COUNTRIES THAT IMPORT RUSSIAN GOODS IF NO CEASEFIRE DEAL IS REACHED WITHIN THE NEXT 50 DAYS. Trump gave the Russian president a new deadline of 50 days to make peace or face 100% tariffs on Russian goods, and more importantly, sweeping secondary tariffs, suggesting trade sanctions would be imposed on countries that continue to pay for Russian oil and other commodities.

EVENTS (CHINA):

• THURSDAY, JULY 31 AT 02:30 GMT+1: CHINA MANUFACTURING PMI (JULY): China’s manufacturing activity continued recovering, rising to 49.7 in June, up from April’s 49 and May’s 49.5. Investors will be eager to find out if China’s manufacturing activity continued to recover in July as well, as data is scheduled to be released on Thursday, July 31.
• SATURDAY, AUGUST 9 AT 02:30 GMT+1: CHINA INFLATION (CPI) (JULY): A positive reading could reinforce optimism about China’s economic recovery and boost demand expectations for key industrial metals like palladium, which is heavily used in the automotive sector. (PREVIOUS: +0.1%)

Palladium, July 25, 2025.
Current Price: 1,259

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 08:30 (GMT+1) 25/07/2025

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
• Trailing stop techniques could protect the profit.