ROYAL CARIBBEAN weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
CRUISE COMPANY SECTOR:
- MARKET SIZE ($7.9 Billion): The global cruise market size was valued at USD 7.90 billion in 2022.
- MARKET GROWTH POTENTIAL (COULD INCREASE AT A COMPOUNDED ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF ~11.0%): The global cruise market is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 11.0% from 2022 to 2028.
ROYAL CARIBBEAN
- THE COMPANY: Royal Caribbean Group operates as a cruise company worldwide. The company operates cruises under the Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, Azamara, and Silversea Cruises brands, which comprise a range of itineraries that call on approximately 1,000 destinations. As of February 25, 2022, it operated 64 ships. The company was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
- ROYAL CARIBBEAN IS THE SECOND CRUISE SHIP OPERATOR WITH 35% MARKET SHARE: Carnival Cruise had by far the highest market share among cruise companies, at 45 percent. Second and third where Royal Caribbean Cruises LTD and Norwegian Cruise Line with 35 and 20 percent market share, respectively.
ROYAL CARIBBEAN (ANALYSIS AND EVENTS)
- FIRST QUARTER EARNINGS RESULTS: The stock has a great record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on May 4, 2023, Royal Caribbean reported EPS of $-0.23 versus consensus estimate of $-0.71 while it beat the consensus revenue estimate by 1.87%. For the current fiscal year, Royal Caribbean is expected to post earnings of $4.72 per share on $13.13 billion in revenues. This represents a 162.93% change in EPS on a 48.49% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $6.84 per share on $14.86 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 44.89% and 13.22%, respectively.
- PASSENGER TICKET DEMAND RISES: In the first quarter of 2023, passenger ticket revenues amounted to $1.89 billion, up from $651.9 million in the prior-year quarter. In the first quarter, the percentage of guests who were either new to brand or new to cruise surpassed 2019 levels by a wide margin.
- RECORD- BREAKING BOOKINGS: Bookings continue to surpass 2019 levels as well. 2023's wave season, a promotional period when guests are able to book cruises at discounted rates, "extended further into the year than ever before," according to Chief Financial Officer Naftali Holtz. Thousands more holidaymakers than usual have made bookings for one of the 64 ships in its fleet.
PRICE ACTION:
- Royal Caribbean stock currently trades roughly 25% below its January 2020 high ($135.65):Royal Caribbean was last trading at $102.00, and if full recovery follows recent all- time highs, the stock could see an upside of around ~33%.
- ANALYST OPINION: Barclays forecasts $100. JPMorgan forecasts $100. Credit Suisse forecasts $104.
Royal Caribbean, June 29, 2023
Current Price: 102.00
|
Royal Caribbean |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
135.00 |
|
|
126.00 |
|
|
114.00 |
|
|
91.00 |
|
|
83.00 |
|
|
75.00 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Royal Caribbean |
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|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
33,000.00 |
24,000.00 |
12,000.00 |
-11,000.00 |
-19,000.00 |
-27,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
30,252.19 |
22,001.60 |
11,000.80 |
-10,084.06 |
-17,417.93 |
-24,751.79 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
26,113.59 |
18,991.70 |
9,495.85 |
-8,704.53 |
-15,035.10 |
-21,365.66 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
43,792.65 |
31,849.20 |
15,924.60 |
-14,597.55 |
-25,213.95 |
-35,830.35 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 9:15 (GMT) 29/06/2023
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