Silver Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
EVENTS:
- FRIDAY, DECEMBER 6 AT 13:30 GMT: US NONFARM PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (NOVEMBER). The US Unemployment rate is expected to stay above 4%. This could further support market expectations that the Fed could cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December.
- WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 11, AT 13:30 GMT: U.S INFLATION (CPI) (NOVEMBER): The U.S is scheduled to report its CPI figure for the month of November. The CPI inflation data from the last month of October came out at 2.6%, up from the 2.4% in September. If it comes below the recent 2.6%, then Silver could be expected to rise in value.
CENTRAL BANKS: INTEREST RATE CUT DECISION
- BREAKING (NOVEMBER 7): FEDERAL RESERVE ANNOUNCED ITS SECOND INTEREST RATE CUT IN 2024. The US Federal Reserve decided to cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.50% points in September and 0.25% points in November. The bank expects to cut rates one more time in 2024 to slash its benchmark rate to 4.5% by the end of 2024. The bank expects rates to fall to 3.5% in 2025 and further down to 2.9% in 2026.
- NEXT FED INTEREST RATE DECISION: December 18, 2024 at 19:00 GMT. As of November 28, the market sees high chances for 25 basis points interest rates cut. This could bring current rates of 4.75% down to 4.50%.
SEASONAL TRADE: DECEMBER - JANUARY (2014- 2024)
- STATISTICS: SILVER ROSE 6.98% ON AVERAGE BETWEEN DECEMBER AND JANUARY (2014- 2024)
Data Source: MetaTrader 4 Platform
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- STRONG SUPPORT AT $30. Silver has maintained strong support at $30 since May 2024. Since then, Silver would resist staying below $30 as bargain hunters come back to send price up back above $30.
ANALYST EXPECTATIONS
- UBS: The bank targets a price of $36.
- CITIGROUP: The bank targets a price of $40.
- JP Morgan: The bank targets a price of $34.
PRICE ACTION
- ALL-TIME HIGH PRICE: $49.80. Silver jumped to $49.80 in 2011, during the debt crisis in Europe. Currently, Silver trades around $29.80 and if full recovery is made this could offer an upside potential of around 67%. However, the price could decline further.
Silver, November 28, 2024
Current Price: 29.80
|
SILVER |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
49.8 |
|
|
40.0 |
|
|
31.0 |
|
|
28.7 |
|
|
28.4 |
|
|
28.0 |
Example of calculation based on trend direction for 1.00 Lot*
|
SILVER |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
200,000.00 |
102,000.00 |
12,000.00 |
-11,000.00 |
-14,500.00 |
-18,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
189,890.00 |
96,843.90 |
11,393.40 |
-10,443.95 |
-13,767.03 |
-17,090.10 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
158,104.00 |
80,633.04 |
9,486.24 |
-8,695.72 |
-11,462.54 |
-14,229.36 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
280,512.00 |
143,061.12 |
16,830.72 |
-15,428.16 |
-20,337.12 |
-25,246.08 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10.000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 9:35 (GMT) 28/11/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.