USD/CAD weekly special report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
USA:
- THURSDAY, AUGUST 29 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS. The US will report its weekly initial jobless claims. Jobless claims have been rising lately, indicating a slowing job market. Last week they printed a figure of 232,000.
- THURSDAY, AUGUST 29 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) (Q2) (second reading). The first reading came in at 2.8%, beating estimates for 2%, being higher than Q1’s 1.4%. The estimates for the second reading are also 2.8%, but if we see lower figure than estimated then the US dollar could come under negative pressure.
- FRIDAY, AUGUST 30 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE (PCE) PRICE INDEX. The data, which provides the Fed with inflation figures, is expected to come in at 2.5% on yearly basis. If PCE comes in weaker than expected, the US Dollar could then come under negative pressure.
- FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 6 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US NONFARM PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (AUGUST). The US labour market has seen some weakness over the past few months as the unemployment rate managed to rise to its highest since late 2021 (4.3%). This is creating a headache to the US Federal Reserve ahead of the September meeting and next week’s data could give better clues whether the Fed could be more aggressive in cutting interest rates in the next few months. Another month of negative employment data in the US could keep the US dollar under negative pressure.
- US FEDERAL RESERVE EXPECTED TO CUT RATES AGRESSIVELY STARTING SEPTEMBER 2024. The most recent economic turmoil in the US raised chances that the Fed could cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, another 50 basis points in November and 25 basis points in December 2024. All in all, that could reduce interest rates from the current 5.5% (the highest in over 20 years) to 4.50%. Falling interest rates in the US could put negative pressure on the US dollar. NEXT FED INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT: September 18 at 19:00 GMT+1.
CANADA:
- WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 4 AT 14:45 GMT+1: BANK OF CANADA INTEREST RATE DECISION. The Bank of Canada has already cut its benchmark interest rate twice this year. Once in June from 5.00% to 4.75%, and the second time in July to current 4.50%. If the bank decides to keep rates unchanged at 4.50% in September, the Canadian dollar could see upward pressure as the US Federal Reserve could start its interest rate cut cycle in September. However, it could also decline.
USD/CAD, August 28, 2024
Current Price: 1.3470
|
USD/CAD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.3700 |
|
|
1.3650 |
|
|
1.3600 |
|
|
1.3330 |
|
|
1.3200 |
|
|
1.3100 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
USD/CAD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
-1,708 |
-1,337 |
-965 |
1,040 |
2,005 |
2,747 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
-1,530 |
-1,197 |
-865 |
931 |
1,796 |
2,461 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
-1,292 |
-1,011 |
-730 |
786 |
1,517 |
2,078 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
-2,300 |
-1,800 |
-1,300 |
1,400 |
2,700 |
3,700 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:30 (GMT+1) 28/08/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.