USD/JPY Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI WARNING IN THE PACIFIC
- BREAKING (JULY 30): EARTHQUAKE OF 8.8 MAGNITUDE NEAR RUSSIA TRIGGERED TSUNAMI WARNINGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC INCLUDING HAWAII AND JAPAN. According to Reuters, Japan's eastern seaboard, devastated by a 9.0 magnitude earthquake and tsunami in 2011, was ordered to evacuate. If the situation escalates, economic fears could rise, which could support the Japanese yen as a safe- haven currency.
GEOPOLITICS: U.S. – JAPAN TRADE
- BREAKING (JULY 23): US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP ANNOUNCED A TRADE DEAL WITH JAPAN. The agreement will bring immediate relief to Japan's critical autos sector with existing tariffs cut to 15% from 25%, and proposed levies on other Japanese goods that were set to come in on August 1 also cut by the same amount (15%).
EVENTS:
- WEDNESDAY, JULY 30 AT 19:00 GMT+1: US FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE DECISION. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference the same day at 19:30 GMT+1. Investors will be eager to hear when the Fed will resume its cycle of interest rate cuts, and more importantly, how President Trump’s pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates immediately could influence future decisions by the Fed.
- THURSDAY, JULY 31 AT 03:30 GMT+1: BANK OF JAPAN INTEREST RATE DECISION. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.50%, but it is also expected to keep its recently started interest rate hike cycle in place going forward, which has pushed rates up from -0.10% (March 2024) to the current 0.50% (January 2025). The Thurdsay’s decision is expected to be followed by a press conference at 7:30 A.M. GMT+1.
- FRIDAY, AUGUST 1 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (JULY). US labor data remains in focus as the Fed weighs its next move. June NFP beat forecasts (147,000 vs. 111,000) and unemployment fell to 4.1% (vs. 4.3% expected). Weak July data could boost rate cut expectations, pressuring the US dollar.
TEHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES POINT TO A DOWNTREND: USDJPY have remained below the 50 - and 100-week moving averages, pointing to a mid-term downtrend. However, USDJPY can also change their trend if prices rise above the 50 - and 100 - week moving averages.
- MID–TERM UPTREND: As depicted by the daily chart below, the USDJPY has kept trading within the mid-term green-lined downtrend channel, confirming its mid-term trend is down. However, there remains a risk of a potential breakout if market conditions change.
GRAPH (Weekly): June 2022 – July 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
USDJPY, JULY 30, 2025.
Current Price: 148.10
|
USD/JPY |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
150.50 |
|
|
150.00 |
|
|
149.50 |
|
|
146.50 |
|
|
144.50 |
|
|
143.00 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
USD/JPY |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
-1,622 |
-1,284 |
-946 |
1,082 |
2,433 |
3,447 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
-1,404 |
-1,111 |
-819 |
936 |
2,106 |
2,983 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
-1,214 |
-961 |
-708 |
809 |
1,821 |
2,580 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
-2,234 |
-1,769 |
-1,303 |
1,489 |
3,351 |
4,747 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100.000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:45 (GMT+1) 30/07/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.