USD/JPY

USD/JPY Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:

EVENTS:

• WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 11 AT 13:30 GMT: NONFARM PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (JANUARY). A weaker than expected jobs report would point to further deterioration in the U.S. labor market, strengthening the case for additional FED rate cuts in the coming months. This would likely pressure the dollar and support further declines in USD/JPY. Markets currently expect payrolls to increase by 70,000, after last month’s gain of 50,000, which already came in well below expectations.
• FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 13 AT 13:30 GMT: US INFLATION (CPI) DATA (JANUARY). U.S. inflation stood at 2.7% in December, its lowest level since July 2025, while core CPI held at 2.6%, its lowest reading since March 2021. CPI is expected to ease further to 2.5%, and another soft reading would reinforce pressure on the U.S. dollar.
• SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 15 AT 23:50 GMT: JAPAN GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) (Q4). Japan’s GDP measures overall economic growth. Q4 GDP is expected at +1.6% year-on-year, rebounding from the previous -2.3% contraction. A recovery in growth would reinforce the Bank of Japan’s view that the economy can withstand further policy normalization, keeping the door open to additional rate hikes. This could support yen strength and add downside pressure on USD/JPY.

US FEDERAL RESERVE (FED)

• BREAKING (JANUARY 30, 2026): PRESIDENT TRUMP NOMINATES KEVIN WARSH AS NEXT FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR TO SUCCEED JEROME POWELL. U.S. President Donald Trump has nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed once Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. According to Reuter, while Warsh was previously seen as an inflation hawk, he has recently advocated for lower interest rates and a major shift in Fed policy, aligning with Trump’s push for easier monetary conditions.
• EVENT (WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 28): U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE DECISION. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, as widely expected. This follows the third consecutive rate cut on December 10, 2025 (after September 17 and October 29, 2025), which brought rates to the lowest level since September 2022. According to Reuters, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that inflation and employment risks have eased, while stressing that further rate cuts remain possible if inflation continues to cool or the labor market weakens.

BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ)

• BREAKING (FEBRUARY 8): PRIME MINISTER SANAE TAKAICHI'S LDP SECURES MAJORITY IN SNAP ELECTION. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party won around 316 of 465 lower house seats in the February 8 general election, delivering a strong mandate for the government. This political stability reduces pressure on the BOJ and supports continued policy normalization, reinforcing expectations of additional rate hikes ahead, which supports the yen and adds downside pressure on USD/JPY.
• BREAKING (JANUARY 23): BOJ MAINTAINS INTEREST RATES AT HIGHEST LEVEL IN DECADES (0.75%). The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, its highest level in more than 30 years, in a widely expected decision. Markets focused on the BOJ’s guidance rather than the hold itself.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

• STRONG RESISTANCE: 155 – 160. This area has acted as a major resistance since April 2024. The USD/JPY has tested this area four times over the past almost two years.

GRAPH (Weekly): December 2023 – February 2026

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

USD/JPY, February 9, 2026
Current Price: 156.4

Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:00 (GMT) 09/02/2026

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
• Trailing stop technique could protect the profit