WHEAT weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL WHEAT MARKET SHARE:
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LARGEST WHEAT PRODUCERS (OF TOTAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED IN 2022: 774.8 MILLION TONES): China at 17%, European Union at ~17%, India at ~14%, Russia at ~10%, USA at ~6.4% and Ukraine ~3.4%.
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LARGEST WHEAT EXPORTERS OF TOTAL 183.8 MILLION TONS (2020/2021): Russia at 23.9%, Canada at 12.44%, USA at 12.24%, France at 10.30% and Ukraine at 8.9%.
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RUSSIA + UKRAINE SHARE at ~30%: Russia and Ukraine would make around 33% of total global exports.
RUSSIA- UKRAINE WAR AND RUSSIA AGAINST THE WEST ECONOMIC WAR:
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EVENT RUSSIA-UKRAINE GRAIN DEAL EXPIRY (CONFIRMED: MARCH 18): Russia and Ukraine are set to negotiate the extension of the Odessa grain deal. However, Russia has indicated that while they would like to extend the grain deal, there will be new conditions. Suggesting changes to the deal may lead to a breakdown in negotiations, which could further effect global wheat supplies and push prices higher.
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UKRAINIAN GRAIN EXPORTS ARE DOWN 33.4% YEAR-ON-YEAR: Ukrainian wheat exports are down significantly from last year, 12 million tons. With a much lower harvest supplies to the global markets are set to be impacted, which should drive prices higher.
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UKRAINIAN HARVESTS ARE DOWN ~40% IN 2022: According to the Ukrainian government, harvests are down 40% in 2022, with 2023 also expected to yield lower harvests. With winter approaching, demand for wheat is set to remain strong.
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US WHEAT EXPORTS SET TO DECLINE IN 2022-2023 SEASON BY ~10% TO 775 MILLION BUSHELS, THE LOWEST EXPORT LEVELS SINCE 1971-72: According to reports, U.S wheat exports are forecasted to fall substantially, with droughts in the US causing problems for wheat sowing. This should put further pressure on global wheat supplies and push prices higher.
RECENT PRICE ACTION:
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WHEAT PRICES HAVE HAD A DOWNWARD CORRECTION OF AROUND 48.13% (FROM 1340 ON MARCH 4 2022 TO 695 ON MARCH 6, 2023). In early March, the Wheat prices rose to an all- time high of 1340. Wheat traded last around 700, and if a full recovery happens, it could provide an upside potential of around 92%.
WHEAT, March 6, 2023
Current Price: 700
|
Wheat |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
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|
850 |
|
|
800 |
|
|
760 |
|
|
650 |
|
|
610 |
|
|
585 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
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WHEAT |
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Pivot Points |
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Profit or loss in $ |
15,000.00 |
10,000.00 |
6,000.00 |
-5,000.00 |
-9,000.00 |
-11,500.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
14,121.63 |
9,414.42 |
5,648.65 |
-4,707.21 |
-8,472.98 |
-10,826.59 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
12,529.23 |
8,352.82 |
5,011.69 |
-4,176.41 |
-7,517.54 |
-9,605.75 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
20,493.90 |
13,662.60 |
8,197.56 |
-6,831.30 |
-12,296.34 |
-15,711.99 |
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1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
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Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:30 (GMT) 6/03/2023
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
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You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
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Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more detail