XPeng (#XPeng) weekly special report based On 1 Lot Calculation:
CHINA EV MARKETS:
- CHINA LEADS THE WAY (2022): EV MADE AROUND 25% OF THE CAR MARKET IN CHINA, UP FROM 13% IN 2021: More than half of the total electric vehicles (EVs) sold worldwide last year (including plug-in hybrids) went to buyers in China.
- CHINA’S EV MARKETS EXPECTED TO GROW BY 35% in 2023 TO 9 MILLION VEHICLES. In the first half of 2023, China's NEV (new energy vehicle) sector output expanded 42.4% year on year to nearly 3.79 million units, while NEV sales surged 44.1% to almost 3.75 million units, according to the National Development and Reform Commission, which is in line with the expectations.
Globally, the EV markets are expected to grow from 10.5 million to 11 million units in 2023. In China, the estimates say that around 27 million cars in total will be sold. The EV would make up around 33% of the total car markets. Total car sales could be expected to grow to 38 million in 2030, while around 15 million (or 40%) to be Electric Vehicles.
XPENG:
- THE COMPANY: XPeng is a Chinese company that designs, produces and distributes electric vehicles. The company also provides finance, parts and maintenance services. It is expanding sales to the Netherlands and Sweden. XPeng produced 2.1% of Chinese made electric vehicles in 2022.
- PROSPECTS: The company is expected to sell over 539,000 vehicles in 2025, a 449% increase over its sales in 2021. China’s aviation regulator has given XPeng Inc. the go ahead for manned tests of its electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) vehicle under certain conditions, moving the firm closer to its goal of mass-producing flying cars for the consumer market. Xpeng’s latest innovation could be a game-changer in the transportation niche, with an anticipated starting price of under one million yuan (approximately $140,000). Next Xpeng Tech Day is scheduled for October 24, 2023.
NEWS AND ANALYSIS:
- EVENT: EARNINGS REPORT: August 18, 2023. The company’s revenue forecast for fiscal year 2023 is a 32.60% increase in the current quarter and a 24.40% increase in the next quarter. This year, revenue growth is estimated to rise 14.70% from the previous financial year.
- Xpeng, announced it delivered 11,008 vehicles in July, up 28% from the month before marking its sixth consecutive month of delivery growth. XPENG’s G6 Ultra Smart Coupe SUV began mass deliveries across 110 cities nationwide in July after its market launch in late June. Xpeng delivered 23,205 cars in the second quarter, a 27% quarter to quarter rise beating the expectations.
- XPeng announced a long term strategic partnership with Volkswagen (July 26). The two companies are going to jointly develop two battery electric vehicles under the Volkswagen brand and Volkswagen is going to buy a 5% stake in XPeng. The partnership could help Xpeng expand into the European market without building its own production and distribution capabilities.
- Xpeng upgraded its city navigation system for customers in first-tier cities like Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Shanghai in March. In a few months, the system’s mileage penetration rate had exceeded 60%. Tesla hasn’t made FSD available in China yet. Even if it had plans to do so, it would take the American giant at least 12 months to localize the system for China’s complex road conditions.
- STOCK PRICE ACTION: XPeng reached a record high of $74.49 in November 2020. Due to the Covid lockdowns the stock prices fell 92% to a level of $6 in February 2022. The price is currently moving around $16.20. A full recovery to the record high price would be over 350% above its current level. However, the price could decline further.
- ANALYST OPINION: HSBC price target is at $22, Jefferies at $25.3, CLSA at $24 and UBS at $23.
(#XPeng) August 14, 2023
Current Price: 16.20
|
XPeng |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
24.50 |
|
|
22.00 |
|
|
19.50 |
|
|
13.00 |
|
|
11.50 |
|
|
9.50 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
XPeng |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
41,500.00 |
29,000.00 |
16,500.00 |
-16,000.00 |
-23,500.00 |
-33,500.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
37,925.52 |
26,502.17 |
15,078.82 |
-14,621.89 |
-21,475.90 |
-30,614.58 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
32,715.03 |
22,861.11 |
13,007.18 |
-12,613.02 |
-18,525.38 |
-26,408.52 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
55,876.64 |
39,046.33 |
22,216.01 |
-21,542.80 |
-31,640.99 |
-45,105.24 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 5000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:25 (GMT+1) 14/08/2022
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