Weekly Special Report: Palladium

PALLADIUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:

• Palladium is mainly used in catalytic converters for petrol and hybrid vehicles, where it helps reduce harmful emissions. Automotive demand is expected to remain the main source of palladium demand in 2026, accounting for more than 80% of total demand.
• MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia remains the largest source of global palladium supply, accounting for around 44% of global mined production. South Africa is the second-largest producer with around 37%, while Canada is third with around 8%. Zimbabwe is the fourth-largest producer, with a slightly lower than 8% market share.

PALLADIUM: SUPPLY SIDE REMAINS RESTRICTED

• SUPPLY REMAINS UDER PRESSURE: Russia remains a key source of global palladium supply, with Nornickel accounting for around 40% of worldwide production. Geopolitical tensions and sanctions-related restrictions on trade and logistics continue to create risks for Russian palladium supply. Nornickel expects its palladium production to fall to around 2.4–2.5 million ounces in 2026, a roughly 20-year low.

EVENTS (U.S.):

• THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10 AT 13:30 GMT+1: U.S. PRODUCERS’ PRICE INDEX (PPI) (AUGUST). U.S. PPI has continued falling since May, dropping to 4.7% in July from 6.5% in May. If producer inflation continued to fall in August, this could signal lower consumer inflation, reducing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. This could be positive for palladium prices.
• THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10 AT 13:30 GMT+1: U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in higher-than-expected last week (206,000 vs. 205,000 expected).
• FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 11 AT 13:30 GMT+1: U.S. INFLATION DATA (CPI) (AUGUST). Investors will closely watch U.S. inflation after the last two readings declined, from 4.2% in May to 3.5% in June and 3.4% in July. Another weak report could reduce expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the September meeting, weighing on the U.S. dollar and supporting palladium prices.
• WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 16 AT 19:00 GMT+1: U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE (FED) INTEREST RATE DECISION. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75% at its latest meeting and continued to downplay the likelihood of interest rate hikes in 2026. If the Fed maintains this position, it could weigh on the U.S. dollar and support palladium prices.

EVENTS (CHINA):

• TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 15 AT 03:00 GMT+1: CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (AUGUST) (PREVIOUS: +4.5%). For August, the market will be watching whether industrial activity remains resilient. A result above the previous 4.5% would indicate stronger industrial momentum and could support expectations for Chinese economic growth and palladium demand.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

• SUPPORT AREA: $1,300 - $1,200. The support area between $1,300 and $1,200 has been tested several times over the past three months. Although this could indicate limited downside potential, a break below these levels could indicate that the downtrend may continue.
• UPTREND (June – September 2026): The daily chart below depicts an ongoing uptrend and an upward trend channel that has been in place since late June 2026. Overall, the palladium price rose from around $1,153 in late June to $1,487.75 by late August 2026. However, the price could also decline.
• PALLADIUM PRICE HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH OF $3,409 (March, 2022). Palladium prices have traded around $1,340, and if a full recovery to the previous all-time high takes place, upside potential of around 154% could be seen. However, the price could also decline.

GRAPH (Daily):  August 2025 - September 2026

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

Palladium, September 9, 2026
Current Price:   1,340

Example of calculation based on weekly market trend for 1.00 Lot¹

1. The above calculations are made based on 1.00 lot which is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:30 (GMT+1) 09/09/2026

You can use risk management tools such as Stop-Loss and Take-Profit