Crude Oil weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
- VACCINATION PROCESS EXPANDS GLOBALLY WITH 1.94 BILLION DOSES BEING ADMINISTERED SO FAR AT AN AVEARGE DAILY RATE OF 34.7 MILLION DOSES. The expanding vaccination process keeps chances high that more and more countries will reopen into the summer, which could increase travelling and therefore fuel consumption could rise. This tends to support oil prices.
- OIL DEMAND IN CHINA CONTINUED TO RECOVER: Analysts expect crude oil imports to rise to 11- 11.5 million barrels per day in the coming period, which would be up from April’s 9.82 million barrels per day.
- USA Oil and Gasoline demand continued to recover as the driving season has already begun with Memorial Day May 31: US Oil Inventory (Week May 17 - May 21): The Energy Information Administration estimated a crude oil inventory decrease of 1.662 million barrels. The Energy Information Administration reported a decrease of 1.745 million barrels of gasoline, too. The EIA reported a distillate (diesel, jet fuels) inventory decrease of 3.013 million barrels as well.
- EUROPE and the UK are starting to reopen gradually, which could boost oil consumption expectations for the summer. Earlier, the EU said that they would open borders for fully vaccinated people, which should increase volume of travelling throughout the summer. The UK, on the other hand, is expected to fully reopen by June 21, 2021.
- INDIA Covid-19 cases continued to fall printing a number of around 133K on June 1 and all that compared to its peak of more than 400K in early May. As the number continues to fall, the authorities could be expected to relax some of their pandemic restrictions, which could be expected to increase oil and gasoline consumption. INDIA is the third largest oil consumer and importer in the world, which used to import more than 5 million barrel per day.
- IRAN SAYS THAT NUCLEAR DEAL NEGOTIATIONS WILL PROBABLY NEED FURTHER ROUND, WHICH PREVENTS IRAN FROM INCREASING OIL EXPORTS (SUPPLY) SHORT TERM: World powers and Iran are unlikely to reach a final agreement in the current round of talks to revive their 2015 nuclear deal, Iranian officials said. Ali Rabiei, spokesman for Iran’s government, said that negotiators now expect to finalize a deal in August, when President Rouhani’s tenure ends.
- ANALYST OPINION (GOLDMAN SACHS/CITOGROUP): Goldman Sachs expects oil demand to rise by 5.2 million barrels per day in the next few months. Crude oil price estimate: ~$77 a barrel. Citigroup also expects oil prices to rise during the summer, setting a price target for $75 a barrel.
Crude Oil, June 2, 2021
Current Price: 67.50
|
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
75.00 |
|
|
73.00 |
|
|
70.00 |
|
|
65.30 |
|
|
63.50 |
|
|
62.00 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot*
|
Crude Oil |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
7,500.00 |
5,500.00 |
2,500.00 |
-2,200.00 |
-4,000.00 |
-5,500.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €** |
6,145.17 |
4,506.46 |
2,048.39 |
-1,802.58 |
-3,277.43 |
-4,506.46 |
|
Profit or loss in £** |
5,307.40 |
3,892.10 |
1,769.13 |
-1,556.84 |
-2,830.62 |
-3,892.10 |
|
Profit or loss in C$** |
9,059.25 |
6,643.45 |
3,019.75 |
-2,657.38 |
-4,831.60 |
-6,643.45 |
* 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
** Calculations for exchange rate used as of 8:00 a.m. (GMT+1) 02/06/2021
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
*** You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
**** Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more details