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Crude Oil

Market Opportunities - 16/09/2021

16 September, 2021

The example below uses Contracts For Difference (CFDs). Calculations are only on the price of the specific instrument on the date below and calculations indicate a possible opportunity for profit or loss. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information, consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

Crude Oil weekly downtrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:

  • OIL PRICE ACTION: The oil prices have risen around 17% over the past four weeks to test the highest rate in six weeks ($72.850). According to its 14-Day Relative Strength Index, Crude Oil is trading close to its overbought threshold of 70, which could suggest limited upside potential, and possibility for a downward correction.
  • ONGOING: Hurricane Ida (Gulf of Mexico). The come-back seems slower than expected, but it happens. Around 33.3% of operations are reported to be shut down, compared to around 70% a few days ago. When oil producers come back online, supply should increase, which should put negative pressure on oil prices.
  • HIGH OIL (ENERGY) PRICES ARE NOT DESIRABLE AT THE MOMENT, HURTING ALREADY SLOWING ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACROSS THE WORLD: Analysts believe that more governments could act to put negative pressure on oil prices. China said that will sell 7.38 million barrels of crude on September 24 from their oil strategic reserves, while US Department of Energy has earlier said will release their petroleum reserves to provide bigger oil supply.
  • COVID-19 FEARS HAVE NOT GONE AWAY, CREATING UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT THE NEAR AND MID TERM ECONOMIC RECOVERY: Despite a high rate of vaccination across the globe, still there is a significant number of unvaccinated people, which is hurting the economic sentiment. This is why both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley cut their US GDP forecasts for the third and the fourth quarter. The Delta variant continues to spread, with many experts fearing emergence of new (different) mutants as the Northern Hemisphere is approaching the autumn.
  • OPEC+ WILL CONTINUE TO ADD 400,000 BARRELS PER DAY IN THE MONTHS AHEAD. Next meeting will take place on October 4.

Crude Oil, September 16, 2021
Current Price: 72.850

Crude Oil

Weekly

Trend direction

DOWN

Resistance 3

80.00

Resistance 2

78.50

Resistance 1

76.60

Support 1

69.00

Support 2

66.50

Support 3

64.00

Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot*

Crude Oil

Pivot Points

Resistance 3

Resistance 2

Resistance 1

Support 1

Support 2

Support 3

Profit or loss in $

-7,150.00

-5,650.00

-3,750.00

3,850.00

6,350.00

8,850.00

Profit or loss in €**

-6,068.73

-4,795.57

-3,182.90

3,267.78

5,389.71

7,511.65

Profit or loss in £**

-5,171.27

-4,086.39

-2,712.20

2,784.53

4,592.66

6,400.80

Profit or loss in C$**

-9,033.45

-7,138.32

-4,737.83

4,864.17

8,022.72

11,181.27

* 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
** Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:11 (GMT+1) 16/09/2021
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
*** You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
**** Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more details

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