Nio weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL EV MARKETS:
- ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EV) MAKE ONLY AROUND 9.0% OF TOTAL CAR SALES, WORTH 66.7 MILLION CARS IN 2021: The total global car market grew just 4.5% in 2021, by around 66.7 million cars. In 2020, the world sold around 63.8 million cars. The estimates say that around 6.5 million electric vehicles (EVs) were sold worldwide in 2021, up 109% from 2020. EV sales represent around 9% of all passenger car sales in 2021. The EV sector increased its market share from 4.11% in 2021 to around 9.00% off the global car sales.
- MARKET POTENTIAL: ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EV) MAY BE EXPECTED TO TAKE UP AROUND 50% OF GLOBAL CAR SALES BY 2030. The 2021 figures of 287.36 billion dollars are an increase of around 76% from 2020’s 160.01 billion dollars. Expecting this number to grow to 823.75 billion dollars, the EV market could be growing annually on average by 18.6%.
CHINA EV MARKETS:
- CHINA LEADS THE WAY (2021): EV MAKES AROUND 13% OF THE CAR MARKET IN CHINA, UP FROM 3.5% IN 2020: More than half of the total electric vehicles (EVs) sold worldwide last year (including plug-in hybrids) went to buyers in China. China led global EV growth in 2021 as sales nearly tripled (UP 277%) to 3.4 million (from 0.9 million in 2020). Total number of cars sold in 2021 in China was 26.28 million, and EV made around 13% of the market. Tesla is the largest EV in China, holding some 14% of the markets, followed by GM’s Wulling (~11.8%), BYD (~10%) and NIO with 2.7%.
- CHINA’S EV MARKETS COULD BE EXPECTED TO GROW BY 61.76% in 2022 TO 5.5 MILLION VEHICLES. Globally, the EV markets are expected to grow from 6.5 million to 9.75 million units in 2022, which is an increase of around 50%. In China, the estimates say that around 25 million cars in total might be sold. The EV could make up around 20% of the total car markets.
- ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN CHINA MAY BE EXPECTED TO TAKE UP 40% OF CHINA’S CAR SALES BY 2030. Total car sales could be expected to grow to 38 million in 2030, while around 15 million (or 40%) to be Electric Vehicles.
NIO:
- THE COMPANY: Nio offers electric vehicles and parts and provides battery-charging services. It currently sells the ES8 and ES6 electric SUVs, and a new EC6 electric crossover. In early January 2021 they revealed their new sedan ET7 that will be selling in 2022. On December 18, 2021, they revealed a cheaper sedan ET5, and they plan soon to announce a new model, that of ES7. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
- EVENT: NIO ET5 STARTS DELIVERIES (September 30, 2022): Nio is going to start deliveries of its new mid-size sedan called the ET5. The ET5 has received a lot of positive reviews in the media and Nio already has over 200,000 pre-orders.
- EVENT: GERMAN MARKET (October 7th, 2022): Nio will start deliveries in Germany and expects to be in the rest of the European market by the end of 2022.
- NEWS: A THIRD (CHEAPER) CAR BRAND COMING: NIO is planning to launch a third electric vehicle brand to cover the low to mid-range market under RMB 200,000 ($30,000), in addition to the NIO brand, and a sub-brand codenamed ALPS
- EXPECTATIONS:
- DEUTSCHE BANK expects Nio to enter a robust product cycle and production to rise from 7 000 in May to 25 000 a month by the end of 2022. The bank expects deliveries to reach 160 000 in 2022 and 320 000 in 2023.
- Jefferies analysts said demand for electric vehicles “remains strong” and it raised its outlook to 11% and 14% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, up from 10% and 13%.
- NIO CAR SALES TO GROW ON AVERAGE 52.30% ANNUALLY BETWEEN 2022 AND 2025. Nio delivered 91,429 vehicles in 2021, and that number is expected to jump to at least 469,687 in 2025.
- NIO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE 4.34% OF THE GLOBAL EV MARKET BY 2025 (UP FROM 1.78% IN 2021). Revenue outlook rises from 2021’s $5.14 billion to $24.67 billion in 2025 per year (increase of 379%).
- NEWS (CHINA): August sales of new energy vehicles reached record 666K units, up 12.31% from 593K units sold in July and 107.48% from 321K units sold in Aug 2021.
- ANALYST OPINION: Daiwa Securities price target is at $67 on September 28, 2022. Credit Suisse forecasted $38 a share on August 29, 2022. Bloomberg’s consensus price target is $30.83.
- STOCK PRICE ACTION: NIO stock made its all-time high of $66.85 in January 2021 and since then fell 70%. The stock currently trades around $17. If a full recovery follows, the stock could increase over 270%.
#NIO, September 29, 2022
Current Price: 17.00
|
Nio |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
44.00 |
|
|
33.00 |
|
|
25.00 |
|
|
12.00 |
|
|
10.00 |
|
|
7.00 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Nio |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
27,000.00 |
16,000.00 |
8,000.00 |
-5,000.00 |
-7,000.00 |
-10,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
27,920.83 |
16,545.68 |
8,272.84 |
-5,170.52 |
-7,238.73 |
-10,341.05 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
24,943.42 |
14,781.28 |
7,390.64 |
-4,619.15 |
-6,466.81 |
-9,238.30 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
37,062.90 |
21,963.20 |
10,981.60 |
-6,863.50 |
-9,608.90 |
-13,727.00 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:22 (GMT+1) 29/09/2022
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