Shopify (#SHOPIFY) weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL E-COMMERCE:
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MARKET SIZE (EXPECTED: $5.55 trillion in 2022): The e-commerce (online sales) market is expected to total $5.55 trillion in 2022, accounting for 21% of total retail sales ($26.42 trillion). Two years ago only 17.8% of sales were made online.
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MARKETS SIZE (EXPECTED: $7.3 TRILLION IN 2025, UP 30% FROM 2022): The global e-commerce market is forecast to be over $7.3 trillion in 2025, compared to 2021’s $4.921 trillion. E- commerce worldwide is expected to represent 24.5% of all global sales IN 2025, up from 19.6% in 2021 and 17.8% in 2020.
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MARKET SHARE BY COUNTRY: China is estimated to claim 52.1% of the global market, USA with 19%, UK with 4.8% and Japan with 3.0%. Rest of the world covers 21.1%.
U.S. E-COMMERCE:
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MARKET SIZE ($767 billion): The U.S. e-commerce market was $767 billion in 2021. The US market grew at a compounded annual growth rate of 12.5% per year since 2017.
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MARKET GROWTH POTENTIAL (TO INCREASE ITS GLOBAL SHARE TO 23.6% BY 2025 TO $1.3 TRILLION FROM CURRENT $767 BILLION): U.S. e-commerce value is expected to grow at a strong average growth rate (annually) of 11.6% between 2021 and 2025 to reach $1.3 trillion in 2025. That would be 23.6% of estimated global e- commerce sales of $7.3 trillion in 2025.
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MARKET SHARE: Amazon is the largest online retailer in the U.S. with 41% market share. Shopify is second, capturing 8.6%, while Walmart covers 6.6% of the US E- commerce markets.
SHOPIFY (ANALYSIS AND EVENTS)
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THE COMPANY: Shopify provides a cloud –based commerce platform. The company offers a platform for merchants to create an Omni-channel experience that helps showcase the merchants brand.
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EVENT (STOCK SPLIT: 10 to 1): EFFECTIVE ON (WEDNESDAY) JUNE 29, 2022. According to MarketWatch, investors view stock splits as a sign of confidence by management, because splits happen more often in stocks that have bullish momentum behind them. Splits also increase liquidity by making shares more accessible to a wider range of investors, something Amazon acknowledged when it announced its split.
STATISTICS: Since 1980, the shares of companies that do stock splits are typically up 25% a year later, compared to 9% for the broader market, according to a recent study by Bank of America.
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PERFORMANCE AFTER STOCK SPLIT ANNOUNCEMENT, PRIOR TO ACTUAL SPLIT (SOURCES: YahooFinance, Bloomberg, Fortrade MT4):
Apple (STOCK SPLIT: 7-1 Announcement April 23, 2014): Apple’s stock price increase around 23% from the announcement of the split until the actual execution of the split on June 9, 2014.
Tesla (STOCK SPLIT: 5-1 Announcement August 11, 2020): Tesla’s price appreciated around 60% from its announcement to the actual stock split date on the 31st of August 2020.
Apple (STOCK SPLIT: 4-1 Announcement July 30, 2020): Apple’s price increased around 30% since its split announcement on 30th of July 2020, until the effective date 31st August 2020.
NVidia (STOCK SPLIT: 4-1 Announcement May 21, 2021): Nvidia witnessed a percentage price increase of around 33% between its announcement date and the effective date of the split on July 20, 2021.
*Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
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STOCK PERFORMANCE AFTER STOCK SPLIT (SOURCES: YahooFinance, Bloomberg, Fortrade MT4):
Apple (STOCK SPLIT: 7-1 effective June 9, 2014): 3 Months: +8.69%. 6 Months: +19.26%. 12 Months: +37.00%
Tesla (STOCK SPLIT: 5-1 effective August 31, 2020): 3 Months: +28%. 6 Months: +53%. 12 Months: +65.91%
Apple (STOCK SPLIT: 4-1 effective August 31, 2020): 3 Months: -4.5%. 6 Months: +2.11%. 12 Months: +22.00%
NVidia (STOCK SPLIT: 4-1 effective July 20, 2021): 3 Months: +17.60%. 6 Months: +30%. 12 Months: -
*Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
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PRICE ACTION: THE STOCK HAS HAD A DOWNWARD CORRECTION OF AROUND 82% FROM ITS ALL- TIME HIGH OF C$213.982 TO TEST ITS LOWEST RATE SINCE NOVEMBER 2019 (C$42.17). Shopify was last trading around C$43.76, and If a full recovery follows recent all- time highs, the stock could see an upside of around 388%.
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ANALYST OPINION: Credit Suisse forecasts C$68. Wells Fargo forecasts C$69. Deutsche Bank Forecasts C$64.
SHOPIFY(#SHOPIFY), June 26, 2022
Current Price: 43.76
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Shopify |
Weekly |
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Trend direction |
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82.00 |
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74.00 |
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60.00 |
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36.00 |
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30.00 |
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25.00 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
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Shopify |
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Pivot Points |
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Profit or loss in $2 |
2,969.17 |
2,348.01 |
1,260.97 |
-602.53 |
-1,068.41 |
-1,456.63 |
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Profit or loss in €2 |
2,833.53 |
2,240.74 |
1,203.36 |
-575.01 |
-1,019.60 |
-1,390.09 |
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Profit or loss in £2 |
2,451.84 |
1,938.90 |
1,041.26 |
-497.55 |
-882.25 |
-1,202.84 |
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Profit or loss in C$ |
3,824.00 |
3,024.00 |
1,624.00 |
-776.00 |
-1,376.00 |
-1,876.00 |
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1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
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Calculations for exchange rate used as of 15:25 (GMT+1) 29/06/2022
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
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You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
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Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more detail