ALIBABA

ALIBABA weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:

GLOBAL E-COMMERCE:

• MARKET SIZE (EXPECTED: $5.55 trillion in 2022): The e-commerce (online sales) market is expected to total $5.55 trillion in 2022, accounting for 21% of total retail sales ($26.42 trillion). Two years ago only 17.8% of sales were made online.
• MARKETS SIZE (EXPECTED: $7.3 TRILLION IN 2025, UP 30% FROM 2022): The global e-commerce market is forecast to be over $7.3 trillion in 2025, compared to 2021’s $4.921 trillion. E- commerce worldwide is expected to represent 24.5% of all global sales IN 2025, up from 19.6% in 2021 and 17.8% in 2020.
• MARKET SHARE BY COUNTRY: China is estimated to claim 52.1% of the global market, USA with 19% , UK with 4.8% and Japan with 3.0%. Rest of the world covers 21.1%.
• MARKET SHARE BY COMPANY AND BY SALES: Alibaba (Taobao and Tmall) claimed 24.00%, while Amazon took up 13% of the globals e- commerce market. JD.com claimed 9.20% of the market.

CHINA E-COMMERCE:

• MARKET SIZE ($2.89 trillion): The Chinese e-commerce market was $2.89 trillion in 2021. The Chinese market grew at 17.7% per year since 2017.
• MARKET GROWTH POTENTIAL (TO INCREASE ITS GLOBAL SHARE TO 45% BY 2025 TO $3.3 FROM CURRENT $2.1 TRILLION): Chinese e-commerce value is expected to grow at a strong average growth rate (annually) of 11.6% between 2021 and 2025 to reach CNY21.4 trillion (US$3.3 trillion) in 2025. That would be 45% of estimated global e- commerce sales of $7.3 trillion in 2025.
• MARKET SHARE: Alibaba (Taobao and Tmall) is the largest online retailer in China with 47.1% market share. JD.com is second, capturing 16.9%, while Pinduoduo covers 13.2% of the Chinese E- commerce markets.

ALIBABA (ANALYSIS AND EVENTS)

• THE COMPANY: Alibaba is the world’s second largest online retailer by market capitalization and the largest in China. It was founded by Jack Ma, a billionaire and one of the richest men in China.
• EARNINGS GROWTH and FUNDAMENTALS: Alibaba’s earnings grew over 59% over the past year. Alibaba’s forward P/E is 13.94, below the industry median of 31.58. Alibaba’s closest competitor in China, JD.com trades at a forward P/E of 36.06 and Amazon’s forward P/E is 85.30.
• MARKET GROWTH POTENTIAL: Alibaba’s revenue is expected to grow to over $185 billion per year in 2025 from current $105 billion, at a compounded annual growth rate of 15% per year. Its cloud computing revenue is expected to climb from $8.9 billion in 2021 to $23 billion in 2025. Cloud computing is the most profitable segment of its business.
• EVENT: Alibaba is scheduled to post its earnings and revenue on August 4th ({remarket). Alibaba posted outstanding financials on May 26th, 2022. The company earned $1.25 per share, and over $32 billion in revenue. Those figures beat forecasts by 17.95% and 7.27% respectively. Alibaba has exceeded earnings forecasts 6 of the last 8 quarters.
• ANALYST OPINION: The consensus 12-month target is $154.34, according to Bloomberg. Credit Suisse set a price target of $166 on July 29th. Jefferies estimated the stock could hit $230 on July 29th, and Macquarie, on July 28th, set a price target of $148.
• UPSIDE POTENTIAL: Alibaba’s current price would need to rise over 255% to reach its all-time high ($319.92: October 2020).

(#ALIBABA), August 1, 2022
Current Price: 90.00

Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:58 (GMT+1) 01/08/2022

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