Alibaba (#ALIBABA)

Alibaba (#ALIBABA) weekly special report based On 1 Lot Calculation:

ALIBABA: COMPANY

• ALIBABA IS ONE OF THE LARGEST E-COMMERCE IN THE WORLD:
• E-COMMERCE MARKET SHARE (COUNTRY) China is estimated to claim 52.1% of the global market, USA with 19%, UK with 4.8% and Japan with 3.0%. Rest of the world covers 21.1%.
• E-COMMERCE MARKET SHARE (COMPANY) Alibaba (Taobao and Tmall) claimed 24.00%, while Amazon took up 13% of the global e- commerce market. JD.com claimed 9.20% of the market.
• ALIBABA IN THE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI) WORLD: Alibaba has showed off its generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) model (Tongyi Qianwen) (its version of the tech that powers chatbot sensation ChatGPT), and said it would be integrated into all of the company's apps in the near future.

ALIBABA: ANALYSIS AND EVENTS

EVENT ALIBABA Q4 EARNINGS REPORT (CONFIRMED (PREMARKET) FEBRUARY 7, 2024): Alibaba is expected to report Q4 earnings in February. The company is expected to report $36.42B in Revenue, and an Earnings Per Share of $2.61, the highest Earnings Per Share in 15 quarters.

• CHINESE GOVERNMENT TO INJECT $278 BILLION OF STIMULUS INTO THE CHINESE MARKET: The Chinese government is expected to inject a new stimulus package according to the most recent reports. The stimulus could help Chinese stocks rally, and in particular, the increase in economic activity could be beneficial for Alibaba.
• ALIBABA CO-FOUNDERS JACK MA AND JOE TSAI BOUGHT $200 MILLION WORTH OF ALIBABA SHARES: Alibaba’s Co-founders, Jack Ma and Joe Tsai, were reported to have bought $200 million worth of Alibaba stock in the fourth quarter. This further emphasizes that the stock has been trading at a discount and could improve investor confidence toward the stock.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

• ALIBABA IS TRADING NEAR ITS SUPPORT ZONE OF $72: Alibaba has rarely traded below $75 a share before rebounding. As per the chart below, most recent dips occurred in 2022. These are the only two occasions since 2016.

However, please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.

• SOURCE: MT4

ALIBABA: PRICE ACTION

• THE STOCK FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 OF $57.82 (OCTOBER 24, 2022), REPRESENTING A DECLINE OF 82% FROM ITS ALL- TIME HIGH OF $319.32 (OCTOBER 2020). Alibaba was last trading around $72, and if a full recovery follows to recent all- time highs, the stock could see an upside of around 343%. However, the price could also decline further.
• ALIBABA STOCK TRADES CLOSE TO ITS 2014 IPO PRICE OF $68: Alibaba currently trades around $72, which is only around $4 above its IPO (Initial Public Offering) price of $68. In other words, when Alibaba first became public company in 2014, it started trading at $68. Almost 10 years later, Alibaba’s stock trades close to that rate again.

• ANALYSTS OPINIONS: Citi Group forecasts price target of $125. JPMorgan forecasts $110. Jefferies forecasts $133. The Bloomberg consensus price target is $112.14.

#ALIBABA, February 2, 2024

Current Price: 72

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units

2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:45 (GMT) 02/02/2024

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