COCOA (#COCOA) Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
TECHNICAL REVIEW
- COCOA PRICES HAVE RECENTLY TESTED THEIR LOWEST LEVEL SINCE NOVEMBER 2024 ($7197).
- COCOA PRICES HAVE TESTED THE MARK OF $7000 (OR NEAR) 10 TIMES SINCE MAY 2024. This is the 11th time that the Cocoa prices are testing levels near the mark of $7000. However, there remains a risk of a potential breakout below this level if market conditions change.
- ALL-TIME HIGH (DECEMBER 18, 2024): $12,911. Cocoa last traded around $7,340, and if the cocoa price tries to recover to its recent all-time high of $12,911, it can then offer an upside of around 76%. Although prices can fall, too.
GRAPH (DAILY): APRIL 2024 - AUGUST 2025
- 2024-2025 STATISTICS: COCOA TENDS TO RECOVER BY AROUND 24.83% ON AVERAGE AFTER TESTING THE MARK OF $7000 OR NEAR IT.
DATA SOURCE: Fortrade MetaTrader 4
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
SUPPLY SIDE:
- TOP PRODUCERS: The biggest producers are Ivory Coast (40% of world total), Ghana (20% of world total), Nigeria, and other small countries in Africa (10% of world total). All in all, West Africa produces around 70% of the world’s total. So, any problems that hit West Africa impact production on a massive scale.
- NEWS (MONDAY, JULY 28): IVORY COAST COCOA EXPORTS LOWER. According to Barchart, Monday's government data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 1.75 million tons of cocoa to ports this marketing year from October 1 to July 27, up +6.1% from last year, but down from the much larger +35% increase seen in December.
- WEATHER CONCERNS IN WEST AFRICA REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF HARVEST SEASON STARTING IN OCTOBER 2025: Barchart report that according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, rainfall in the Ivory Coast and Ghana this season remains below the 30-year average, and combined with high temperatures, risks hurting cocoa pod development for the main crop harvest that starts in October 2025.
- CHRONIC AGRICULTURAL PROBLEMS IN WEST AFRICA: Various problems, such as El Nino warm weather (compounded by climate change), Black pod fungal disease, and the swollen shoot virus, could cause supply disruptions and price spikes of cocoa. This problem was made even worse by the fact that farmers in these producer countries are relatively poor and don’t have access to modern agricultural methods to protect their crops.
DEMAND SIDE:
- TOP CONSUMERS: The biggest consumers of cocoa are developed countries (around 70% of the total demand for cocoa), but the demand for cocoa could increase, especially from emerging and developing countries like China and India. (China and India have cocoa consumption growth rates of around 20% and 10% respectively, which means that the market could double on average every 3,6 and 7,2 years).
- HIGHER DEMAND GROWTH RATE: The average growth rate for world cocoa demand could be projected at 4.7%.
COCOA (#COCOA) August 4, 2025.
Current Price: 7,340
|
Cocoa |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
10,000 |
|
|
9,000 |
|
|
8,000 |
|
|
6,800 |
|
|
6,700 |
|
|
6,500 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Cocoa |
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
26,600 |
16,600 |
6,600 |
-5,400 |
-6,400 |
-8,400 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
23,012 |
14,361 |
5,710 |
-4,672 |
-5,537 |
-7,267 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
20,027 |
12,498 |
4,969 |
-4,066 |
-4,819 |
-6,324 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
36,658 |
22,877 |
9,096 |
-7,442 |
-8,820 |
-11,576 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:15 (GMT) 04/08/2025
There is a possibility to use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.