COCOA

COCOA (#COCOA) Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND PRICE ACTION

• BREAKING (JANAURY 23, 2026): COCOA PRICES HAVE TESTED THEIR LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY 2024 ($4,067). The price has recently traded near those levels again.
• SUPPORT AREA: $4,000. After falling below the $6,000–$5,000 range, cocoa prices are now testing their next strong psychological support at $4,000, which has not been challenged since January 2024.
• OVERSOLD CONDITIONS: According to the daily chart below, cocoa prices appear oversold, as indicated by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI). The index has now fallen below the oversold threshold of 30, which technically indicates an oversold condition and suggests a potential recovery. However, prices could also continue to decline.
• ALL-TIME HIGH (DECEMBER 18, 2024): $12,911. Cocoa last traded around $4,070, and if the cocoa price tries to recover to its recent all-time high of $12,911, it can then offer an upside of around 217%. Although prices can fall, too.

GRAPH (DAILY): October 2024 - January 2026

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

FUNDAMENTALS:

• SUPPLY SIDE: Cocoa beans are grown primarily in West Africa, with the Ivory Coast (~42% of the world’s total) and Ghana (~25.0% of the world’s total). Behind them are Indonesia (~11.4%), Ecuador (~6,7%), and Brazil (~5.2%).
• DEMAND SIDE: Demand for cocoa is strong and growing, especially from countries that are developing fast, like China and India, with a growing middle class eager to consume and gift chocolate. The demand for cocoa is as follows: Europe (~35% of the world’s total), Asia and Oceania (~21%), Africa (~22%), and the Americas – North and South (~18%).

EVENTS:

• EVENT (EXPECTED: JANUARY 26 – JANUARY 30)): THE INTERNATIONAL COCOA ORGANIZATION (ICCO) COCOA MARKET REPORT (DECEMBER). The monthly report shows the market’s supply and demand outlook as well as the general market balance data. It could include data for the most recent start of the harvest season in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, the two largest cocoa producers in the world.
• EVENT (EXPECTED: FEBRUARY 2026): INTERNATIONAL COCOA ORGANISATION (ICCO) QUARTERLY BULLETIN OF COCOA STATISTICS. The ICCO quarterly report last time cut its global surplus estimate to 49,000 tons from a previous estimate of 142,000 tons and lowered its global production estimate to 4.69 million tons from a prior estimate of 4.84 million tons.
• NEXT EVENT (EASTER CHOCOLATE DEAMAND (Q1-Q2 OF 2026)): This is one of the strongest seasonal demand periods for cocoa, especially in Europe and North America. Meanwhile, companies like Nestlé, Mondelez, and Hershey and their earnings will be watched as they may indicate potential demand strength, too.

NEWS:

• NIGERIA: Nigeria, the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer, reported smaller cocoa supplies. Nigeria's November cocoa exports fell -7% on an annual basis to 35,203 tons. Nigeria's Cocoa Association projects that Nigeria's 2025/26 cocoa production will fall by -11% on an annual basis to 305,000 tons from a projected 344,000 tons for the 2024/25 crop year.
• BREAKING NEWS (JANUARY 2026): COCOA WAS INCLUDED IN THE BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX (BCOM) STARTING JANUARY 2026. According to Barchart.com, Cocoa’s inclusion in the index for the first time in two decades could spark upward price pressure. According to estimates by Citigroup Inc., the index may attract as much as $2 billion in investment activity in the first days following inclusion.

COCOA (#COCOA) January 23, 2026
Current Price: 4,070

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:00 (GMT) 23/01/2026

There is a possibility to use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
• Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.