CRUDE OIL Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: MIDDLE EAST WAR
- OPEC PRODUCTION DOWN AROUND 24.5% FROM THE GULF REGION
SUMMARY OF OIL PRODUCTION CUTS SO FAR IN THE REGION:
- SAUDI ARABIA: 2 to 2.5 million barrels a day of production cuts.
- IRAQ: 3.2 million barrels a day production cut.
- KUWAIT: 0.59 million barrels a day, but it may extend to 1.09 million barrels a day production cut.
- U.A.E.: around 0.7 million barrels a day production cut.
- BAHRAIN: Bahrain declared force majeure after the refinery attack, which was able to produce more than 200,000 barrels a day of oil.
- TOTAL OIL PRODUCTION CUTS: around 7 million barrels a day of oil production cuts.
OPEC: THE CURRENT OIL PRODUCTION CUTS ARE EQUAL TO AROUND 24.5% OF TOTAL OPEC OIL PRODUCTION BEFORE THE WAR.
OPEC+: THE CURRENT OIL PRODUCTION CUTS ARE EQUAL TO AROUND 17% OF TOTAL OPEC+ OIL PRODUCTION BEFORE THE WAR.
Source: Bloomberg
MIDDLE EAST WAR: NEWS
- THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ REMAINS EFFECTIVELY “CLOSED”. More than 20 million barrels of oil used to pass through it on a daily basis before the war, which is more than 20% of total global demand. Qatar, which is responsible for around 20% of total Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports in the world, also uses the Strait of Hormuz to export its LNG. All of that has gone down essentially to zero since the start of the war in the Middle East.
- IRAN: WE WILL NOT ALLOW “ONE LITER OF OIL” TO LEAVE THE REGION IF ATTACKS FROM THE U.S. CONTINUE. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said it would not allow "one liter of oil" to leave the region if attacks from the United States continue.
Source: Reuters, CNBC
PRICE ACTION: ANALYSTS’ OPINION
- BIG BANKS AND THEIR ESTIMATES IF THE CLOSURE OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT PERSISTS:
- JP MORGAN: $120
- BARCLAYS: $100-$150
- GOLDMAN SACHS: $100
- UBS: $120
Source: Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg, OILPRICE.COM
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
- SUPPORT AREA: $80. After rising to its highest level since June 2022 ($119.40), crude oil prices have now found support around the $80 level or below. Since the war began, crude oil has surged about 77%, reaching prices not seen in almost four years and pushing the market firmly above $80. However, the price could also decline.
GRAPH (Weekly): November 2020 – March 2026
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
Crude Oil, March 10, 2026
Current Price: 87
|
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
120 |
|
|
110 |
|
|
100 |
|
|
77 |
|
|
76 |
|
|
75 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Crude Oil |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
33,000 |
23,000 |
13,000 |
-10,000 |
-11,000 |
-12,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
28,321 |
19,739 |
11,157 |
-8,582 |
-9,440 |
-10,299 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
24,519 |
17,089 |
9,659 |
-7,430 |
-8,173 |
-8,916 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
44,797 |
31,222 |
17,647 |
-13,575 |
-14,932 |
-16,290 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used a 10:10 (GMT) 10/03/2026
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop techniques could protect the profit.