COFFEE Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
COFFEE USE AND MARKET SHARE:
- Coffee is one of the most actively traded agricultural commodities in the world and the most consumed beverage after water. Every day, an estimated 2.25 billion cups are consumed globally, making coffee a vital part of daily life and a key driver of agricultural economies. It is produced in more than 60 tropical countries, primarily in Latin America, Africa, and Asia, and traded mainly through Arabica and Robusta futures contracts.
- MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): BIGGEST COFFEE PRODUCERS IN THE WORLD: Brazil dominates global coffee production with about 36–37% of total output, followed by Vietnam (17%), Colombia (7%), Ethiopia (6.5%), and Indonesia (6%). On the export side, Brazil leads with 22.2%, while Vietnam, Switzerland, Germany, and Colombia follow as key suppliers, each holding between 7–8% of global exports.
- MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): The United States is the largest coffee importer, representing 17.7% of global demand, followed by Germany (12%), France (6.7%), and Italy (6.1%). Together with Canada and other European and Asian markets, these countries account for nearly 80% of global coffee imports, reflecting coffee’s strong cultural and economic importance worldwide.
SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS: U.S. - BRAZIL TARIFFS
- U.S. CUTS COFFEE TARIFFS BUT BRAZIL STILL FACES 40% CHARGE. The U.S. has reduced tariffs on coffee as part of a wider cut on agricultural imports, with changes applied retroactively from 13 November. However, Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, continues to face exceptionally high import charges. Even after the adjustment, Brazil’s tariff rate falls only from 50% to 40%.
DEMAND CONTINUES TO RISE
- GLOBAL DEMAND FOR COFFEE CONTINUES TO RISE, PARTICULARLY IN EMERGING MARKETS LIKE CHINA AND INDIA, where coffee culture is expanding. This growing consumption puts additional pressure on an already constrained supply. The upcoming winter months and the December holiday season typically see increased coffee consumption due to colder weather and festivities
EVENTS:
- EARLY DECEMBER: INTERNATIONAL COFFEE ORGANIZATION (ICO) MONTHLY COFFEE MARKET REPORT. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 10 that global coffee exports showed a slight decline, reflecting supply constraints and weather impacts in major producing countries. Its next monthly report is expected to be released in early December of 2025.
- DECEMBER 18: US DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA) GLOBAL COFFEE REPORT. The USDA’s biannual report, released in June and December, projected that global coffee production in 2025/26 will rise 2.5% to a record 178.68 million bags. The outlook includes a 1.7% decline in arabica output to 97.022 million bags and a 7.9% increase in robusta production to 81.658 million bags. The report also expects Brazil’s 2025/26 production to edge up 0.5% to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is forecast to grow 6.9% to a four-year high of 31 million bags.
WEATHER FORECAST
- CLIMATE FORECASTS SHOW A 71% PROBABILITY OF A LA NIÑA WEATHER PATTERN FROM OCTOBER TO DECEMBER 2025, which could bring even drier conditions and further harm crops. Severe dryness over the summer has already damaged coffee trees during the crucial flowering stage, reducing potential yields.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- PRICE ACTION: COFFEE PRICES HAVE RISEN BY AROUND 33% IN A YEAR. Coffee prices continued to trade in an uptrend as they managed to hit a fresh all-time high of $437.60 in late October.
GRAPH (Daily): January 2025 - November 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
Coffee, November 17, 2025.
Current Price: 380.00
|
Coffee |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
470.00 |
|
|
435.00 |
|
|
410.00 |
|
|
355.00 |
|
|
350.00 |
|
|
340.00 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Coffee |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
90,000 |
55,000 |
30,000 |
-25,000 |
-30,000 |
-40,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
77,578 |
47,408 |
25,859 |
-21,549 |
-25,859 |
-34,479 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
68,279 |
41,726 |
22,760 |
-18,966 |
-22,760 |
-30,346 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
126,252 |
77,154 |
42,084 |
-35,070 |
-42,084 |
-56,112 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 12:15 (GMT) 17/11/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop techniques could protect the profit.