Copper Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
SUPPLY SIDE:
- TOP COPPER PRODUCERS: The biggest producers of copper are: Chile (27% of the world total), China (8%), Peru (8%), the Democratic Republic of Congo (6%), Australia (5%), Mexico (5%), Russia (3%), and Canada (2%).
DEMAND SIDE:
- TOP COPPER CONSUMERS: The biggest consumers of copper are: China (52% of the world’s total), the United States (7%), the European Union (8%), and Japan (4%).
- TOP COPPER INDUSTRIES: Copper is heavily demanded in the EV industry, renewable energy industry (wind and solar farms), electrical infrastructure, telecommunications, and construction. The EV and green industries show the biggest growth rates (10-15% and 5%, respectively) and are expected to push the overall copper growth rate even higher in the future.
CHINA: US-CHINA TRADE AGREEMENT AND MORE STIMULUS ANNOUNCED
- BREAKING (MAY 12): US AND CHINA REACH TARIFF REDUCTION DEAL. The U.S. and China agreed to slash tariffs in a surprise move to ease trade tensions. U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods will drop from 145% to 30%, while Chinese tariffs on U.S. imports will fall from 125% to 10%. The deal includes a 90-day suspension on further tariffs.
- CHINA ANNOUNCED MORE STIMULUS AS THE CENTRAL BANK WILL LOWER INTEREST RATES ON MAY 8 AND MAY 15. China's central bank lowered the borrowing cost of its seven-day reverse repurchase agreements, its benchmark interest rate, by 10 basis points (bps) to 1.40%, effective May 8. The amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, known as the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), was also cut by 50 bps from May 15, bringing the average level to 6.2% (It should release $138 billion in liquidity.) (Source: Reuters).
- COPPER DEMAND OUTLOOK IMPROVES. The agreement boosts prospects for global industrial activity and infrastructure spending, particularly in China, the world’s largest copper consumer. Lower trade barriers and improved supply chains could support higher copper demand, especially if industrial production and construction activity accelerate.
EVENTS (CHINA):
- MONDAY, MAY 19 AT 03:00 GMT+1: CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (YEAR-ON-YEAR) (APRIL): China will release how its factory output is performing compared to the same month last year. Stronger-than-expected data could signal rising demand for raw materials, including copper, which is widely used in industrial applications. A continued recovery in China’s industrial sector would be supportive for global metal prices, especially if combined with improving trade conditions. (PREVIOUS (MARCH): +7.7%).
EVENTS (USA):
- EVENT (THURSDAY, MAY 15 AT 13:40 GMT+1): US FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL SPEAKS. Investors will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments for any signals on the future path of interest rates. If Powell adopts a more dovish tone—highlighting easing inflation and potential economic slowdown—it could boost expectations for rate cuts later this year.
- THURSDAY, MAY 15, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US RETAIL SALES (Monthly)(APRIL): U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in March with 1.4% increase vs 1.3% expected.
ANALYSTS OPINION:
- GOLDMAN SACHS SEES COPPER PRICE BETWEEN $5 and $5.50: Goldman Sachs expects a deficit of 180.000 tons in 2025 and 250.000 tons in 2026.
- COMMERZBANK RISES COPPER PRICE TERGET TO $5
- BANK OF AMERICA SEES COPPER PRICE BETWEEN $4.5 AND $5.25
- SOCIETE GENERALE SEES COPPER PRICE BETWEEN $5.15 AND $5.7
PRICE ACTION:
- COPPER HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH OF $5.3702 (March 26, 2025). Copper currently trades around $4.70, and if a full recovery takes place, then copper prices could see an upside of 14%. However, copper prices could decline as well.
COPPER, May 14, 2025
Current Price: 4.70
|
COPPER |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
5.37 |
|
|
5.20 |
|
|
5.00 |
|
|
4.45 |
|
|
4.35 |
|
|
4.20 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
COPPER
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
6,700 |
5,000 |
3,000 |
-2,500 |
-3,500 |
-5,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
5,969 |
4,454 |
2,672 |
-2,227 |
-3,118 |
-4,454 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
5,026 |
3,750 |
2,250 |
-1,875 |
-2,625 |
-3,750 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
9,326 |
6,960 |
4,176 |
-3,480 |
-4,872 |
-6,960 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10 000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:50 (GMT+1) 14/05/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit