Crude Oil

Crude Oil weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:

GEOPOLITICS: TENSIONS RISE BETWEEN THE USA AND RUSSIA

• EVENT (FRIDAY, AUGUST 15, 2025): US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP AND RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN MEETING IN ALASKA, USA. The US and Russia have agreed to hold a meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on Friday (August 15) to discuss ways forward to end the war in Ukraine, marking the first high-level bilateral talks since Trump returned to office.
• US SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA AND ITS TRADE PARTNERS STILL ON TABLE IF NO PEACE DEAL IS REACHED. According to Reuters, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened severe consequences if Russia's Vladimir Putin does not agree to peace. Trump did not specify what the consequences could be, but he has warned of economic sanctions if his meeting with Putin in Alaska on Friday proves fruitless.

RUSSIAN OIL PRODUCTION: Russia produces around 9% of total oil production in the world, or near 10 million barrels a day.

RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS: Russia’s oil exports of around 5 million barrels a day, representing around 5% of total global consumption.

TRADE: OPTIMISM PREVAILS

• BREAKING (AUGUST 11): US PRESIDENT TRUMP EXTENDED CHINA TARIFF TRUCE FOR ANOTHER 90 DAYS UNTIL MID-NOVEMBER. President Donald Trump signed an executive order delaying the reinstatement of higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods for an additional 90 days, moving the deadline to mid-November 2025. The USA and China are the two largest consumers of oil and oil petroleum in the world, consumer together more than 30 million barrels of oil a day, which is near 30% of total global daily consumption.

OTHER EVENTS:

• FRIDAY, AUGUST 15 AT 03:00 GMT+1: CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (JULY). A strong result in China’s industrial production would reinforce optimism for oil demand, as expanding factory and manufacturing output typically drives higher consumption. With China being the world’s second largest consumers of oil, and the largest oil importer in the world, continued industrial growth could provide some positive support to the oil prices.

EVENTS (ECONOMIC CALENDAR):

• WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 20 AT 15:30 GMT+1: ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION (EIA) OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected. However, the price could decline.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

• CRUDE OIL PRICES HAVE TESTED THE LOWEST LEVEL IN MORE THAN TWO MONTHS ($61.265): Crude oil prices have fallen to their lowest in more than two months, testing levels not seen since late May 2025.
• LONG-TERM SUPPORT AREA AT THE PSYCHOLOGICAL MARK OF $60: Crude oil prices have recently tested levels near $60, which has been acting as a support area since early 2021.
• STATISTICS (2021-2025): CRUDE OIL PRICES TEND TO RECOVER AFTER TESTING THE AREA NEAR THE MARK OF $60. Crude oil prices have approached the area near $60 in total seven times since early 2021. According to the daily chart below, after testing levels near $60, crude oil prices tend to recover towards the area between $70 and $75. Although, prices can fall too.

GRAPH (Daily): February 2021 – August 2025

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

Crude Oil, August 14, 2025.
Current Price: 62.00

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:40 (GMT+1) 14/08/2025

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
• Trailing stop techniques could protect the profit.