EUR/USD weekly downtrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
- EVENT (SEPTEMBER 21, WEDNESDAY AT 19:00 GMT+1): US FEDERAL RESERVE (FED) INTEREST RATE DECISION. PRESS CONFERENCE AT 19:30 GMT+1. The FED is expected to raise their benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points from current 2.50% TO 3.25%, although some market participants think the Fed may go for a 1%-point interest rate hike to 3.50%. Interest rates are expected to go up due to rising inflation in the US, stands currently at of 8.5%.
- ITALIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS (SEPTEMBER 25, SUNDAY): RIGHT- WING COALITION LED BY “BROTHERS OF ITALY” GIORGIA MELONI EXPECTED TO WIN. She is expected to form a coalition with Salvini’s League party and Berlusconi’s Forza Italy. She is not expected to change position on Italy status within the EU nor Italy’s support for Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. She is expected to work more on the migration crisis.
- EUROPEAN ECONOMY REMAINS UNDER THREAT OF RECESSION AS RUSSIAN NATURAL GAS FLOWS FROM NORD STREAM 1 WERE CUT DOWN TO 0.00%. Nord Stream 1 flows were responsible for around 40% of total Russian flows to Europe. In addition, the markets fear that Russia could soon consider cutting flows via other channels, like Ukraine, to Europe. Recent economic data in Europe and Germany, in particular, has shown that the EU economy continued to fall and reduced natural gas flows from Russia to Germany could exacerbate this situation as Russia provided German with 55% of their needs last year. Without the Russian gas, the German economy could soon enter a recession, which is negative for the Euro currency.
- US- EUROPE INTEREST RATES DIFFERENTIALS IN FAVOUR OF THE US DOLLAR: The interest rates (FED) in the US have gone up recently to 2.5%, while the benchmark interest rate in Europe has gone up to 1.25%. The difference between the two remains 1.25% points in favor of the US dollar, which makes the US dollar more attractive than the Euro. This could be another reason why the US dollar could continue strengthening against the Euro.
EUR/USD, September 19, 2022
Current Price:1.0000
|
EUR/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.0250 |
|
|
1.0200 |
|
|
1.0135 |
|
|
0.9860 |
|
|
0.9780 |
|
|
0.9700 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
EUR/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
-2,500 |
-2,000 |
-1,350 |
1,400 |
2,200 |
3,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
-2,507 |
-2,005 |
-1,354 |
1,404 |
2,206 |
3,008 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
-2,198 |
-1,758 |
-1,187 |
1,231 |
1,934 |
2,638 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
-3,328 |
-2,662 |
-1,797 |
1,864 |
2,928 |
3,993 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:06 (GMT+1) 19/09/2022
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