EUR/USD Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
PRICE ACTION: EUR/USD
- BREAKING (NOVEMBER 22): EUR/USD HIT ITS LOWEST RATE IN TWO YEARS (1.03305). The EUR/USD currency pair has fallen, as the US dollar continued rising, extending its post- US presidential election rally. Meanwhile, negative economic data in Europe and developing political crises in Germany and France have also put the Euro under negative pressure.
GEOPOLITICS: EUROZONE
- GERMANY, THE LARGEST ECONOMY IN THE EUROZONE, IS IN TROUBLE AFTER CHANCELLOR OLAF SCHOLZ FIRED FINANCE MINISTER LINDER. Meanwhile, Germany’s three-party ruling coalition collapsed as the Free Democratic Party (FDP) left the coalition which member Linder was in. Germany now could be up for early- elections. The German government will undergo a vote of confidence on December 16, and if Scholz’s government does get the necessary vote of confidence, Germany will probably go on early elections in late February 2023. This weighs on the euro, exacerbating the EUR/USD pair's decline.
- FRENCH GOVRENMENT CLOSE TO COLLAPSE OVER 2025 BUDGET VOTE? According to Le Monde, there is a possibility of a motion of no confidence that could bring down Prime Minister Michel Barnier's government in the coming weeks and leave France without a budget for 2025 is starting to be taken very seriously.
EVENTS:
- FRIDAY, DECEMBER 6 AT 13:30 GMT: THE US NONFARM PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (NOVEMBER). US Unemployment rate is expected to stay above 4%.
- WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 11 AT 13:30 GMT: U.S INFLATION (CPI) (NOVEMBER): The U.S is scheduled to report its CPI figure for the month of November. The CPI inflation data from last month of October came out at 2.6%, up from 2.4% in September.
- THURSDAY, DECEMBER 12 AT 13:15 GMT: EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK INTEREST RATE DECISION. The decision will be followed by a press conference at 13:45 GMT. The ECB cut its benchmark interest rate in October from 3.65% to the current 3.40%, and investors expect the ECB could continue with their rate cutting cycle on. The benchmark interest rate in the Eurozone is now expected to be slashed below 3.40%. If the ECB does decide on an interest rate cut, this could push the EURO lower.
ANALYST OPITION:
- HSBC: The bank forecasts that the EUR/USD will fall below parity to 0.99 by the end of 2025.
EURUSD, NOVEMBER 28, 2024
Current Price: 1.0550
|
EUR/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.0800 |
|
|
1.0750 |
|
|
1.0700 |
|
|
1.0400 |
|
|
1.0200 |
|
|
1.0000 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
EUR/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
-2,500 |
-2,000 |
-1,500 |
1,500 |
3,500 |
5,500 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
-2,372 |
-1,898 |
-1,423 |
1,423 |
3,321 |
5,219 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
-1,974 |
-1,579 |
-1,184 |
1,184 |
2,763 |
4,342 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
-3,502 |
-2,801 |
-2,101 |
2,101 |
4,903 |
7,704 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100.000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:47 (GMT) 28/11/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.