EUR/USD Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:
- THURSDAY, JUNE 26, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US GDP (Q1): This is the final GDP number for Q1 2025. The last estimate was -0.2%, better than the first one at -0.3%. If the new number is weak or goes down again, it could hurt the U.S. dollar and push EUR/USD higher. A weak economy makes it more likely the Fed will cut rates.
- FRIDAY, JUNE 27, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US CORE PCE: This is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. It is expected to rise from 2.5% to 2.6%. If the actual number comes in lower than the expected 2.6%, it could hurt the dollar as markets may expect rate cuts sooner. That would support EUR/USD.
- TUESDAY, JULY 1, AT 10:00 GMT+1: EUROZONE CPI (JUNE): Inflation in the euro area will be in focus. The previous CPI was 1.9%. If the actual number comes in higher, it could support the euro, as markets may reduce expectations of ECB rate cuts. A strong CPI reading would be bullish for EUR/USD.
NEWS:
- JUNE 25-26: POWELL TESTIMONY BEFORE CONGRESS: Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that rate cuts could come “sooner rather than later,” but stressed the need to monitor the inflationary effects of new tariffs. His cautious tone weakened the U.S. dollar, helping EUR/USD move higher as markets increased their expectations of Fed easing.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- LONGER-TERM TREND LINE: The black trend line depicted by the chart below shows that EUR/USD prices have maintained their uptrend in general since January 2025.
- DAILY MOVING AVERAGES POINT TO UPTREND: EUR/USD have recently traded above the 20- and 50-day moving Averages, pointing to an ongoing uptrend. However, EUR/USD can change its trend if prices fall below the 20- and 50-day Moving Averages.
- 14-DAY RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI) STAYS ABOVE 50: The chart below shows that the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) remains in an uptrend, floating above the break-even point of 50, towards the upper limit of 70, before it tries to enter an oversold territory and potentially change its trend.
- RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS: The EUR/USD has remained in a longer-term uptrend, looking at Resistance 1 of $1.1790, Resistance 2 of $1.1840, and Resistance 3 of $1.1890 to the upside. On the downside, EUR/USD looks at Support 1 of $1.1600, then towards Support 2 of $1.1580, and Support 3 of $1.1550.
- EUR/USD IS TRADING AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE SEPTEMBER 2021: EUR/USD is trading at its highest level since September 2021, extending its recent upward trend and gaining traction in the market.
GRAPH (Daily): December 2024 – June 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
EURUSD, June 26, 2025
Current Price: 1.1690
|
EUR/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.1890 |
|
|
1.1840 |
|
|
1.1790 |
|
|
1.1600 |
|
|
1.1580 |
|
|
1.1550 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
EUR/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
2,000 |
1,500 |
1,000 |
-900 |
-1,100 |
-1,400 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
1,710 |
1,282 |
855 |
-769 |
-940 |
-1,197 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
1,457 |
1,093 |
728 |
-656 |
-801 |
-1,020 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
2,742 |
2,056 |
1,371 |
-1,234 |
-1,508 |
-1,919 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100.000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 08:45 (GMT+1) 26/06/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.