Gold

Gold Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:

GEOPOLITICS:

• MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS KEEP MARKETS NERVOUS: According to Reuters, Israel will go after the remaining Hamas battalions in Rafah despite strong international criticism and is preparing a plan to get civilians out of harm’s way, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said. Rafah is a small city on the southern border with Egypt where over half of Gaza's 2.3 million people are now living. Egypt warned of "dire consequences" of a potential Israeli military assault on Rafah, which lies near its border. Additionally, tensions are also escalating between Israel and Hezbollah which could spread the conflict further across the region.
• ELECTION YEAR IN THE US: The United States Election Year has statistically been favorable for gold, rising on average 9.94%. According to the last five election cycles, gold prices have risen on average 9.94%, with the commodity rising 11.96% on average when Democrats win and 6.91% on average with a Republican victory.

Source: Bloomberg and MT4

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.

EVENTS:

• EVENT (FED CHAIRMAN JEROME POWELL TESTIMONY BEFORE CONGRESS - March 6 - 7, 2024): Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC. The testimony is in two parts; the first is a prepared statement, then the committee conducts a question and answer session. The Q&A portion of the testimony could see heavy market volatility for the duration.
• EVENT (FRIDAY, MARCH 8 AT 13:30 GMT): US NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (FEBRUARY): The United States is set to release its Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate data on March 8th 2024. The previous NFP reading came in higher than expected (353K vs 187K) and the current expectation for February is 180K. If NFP comes in lower than 180K, this could push the Gold price higher.
• EVENT (TUESDAY, MARCH 12 AT 13:30 GMT): US INFLATION (FEBRUARY): The United States is expected to release its CPI Inflation data for the month of February on March 12th, 2024. The last reading showed a decrease from 3.4% to 3.1% which shows a declining trend in inflation. If the latest reading comes in lower than expected (3.1%), this could push the Gold price higher.
• EVENT (FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE DECISION - MARCH 20, 2024): The United States Federal Reserve will be making a decision on interest rates on March 20th, 2024.The Fed has kept interest rates at 5.5% since July 2023 and markets are expecting rates to remain unchanged at the March meeting. Markets will be focused on Fed Chairman Powell’s speech after the meeting for indications and guidance as to when interest rate cuts can be expected.

ANALYST OPINION

• CITIGROUP: GOLD COULD HIT $3000 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 MONTHS. Gold could rise 50% if central banks sharply ramp up purchases of the yellow metal, a possible stagflation, or in case of a deep global recession. However, the price could decline further. Central banks’ gold purchases have “accelerated to record levels” in recent years, as they seek to diversify reserves and reduce credit risk. China and Russian central banks are leading gold purchases, with India, Turkey, and Brazil, also increasing bullion buying.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

• SUPPORT AT $2000: Gold has respected the support of $2000 since November 2023.

GRAPH: Gold Price (November 2023- February 2024)

GOLD, February 29, 2024
Current Price:2030

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:00 (GMT) 29/02/2024
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
• Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more details.