NATURAL GAS weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
NATURAL GAS GLOBAL MARKETS:
- LARGEST NATURAL GAS SUPPLIER IN THE WORLD (LNG + PIPELINE): 1. RUSSIA (173.81 million tons); 2. USA; 3. QATAR; 4. NORWAY; 5. AUSTRALIA;
- LARGEST NATURAL GAS IMPORTER IN THE WORLD: CHINA (121.99 million tons)
- CHINA’S LARGEST NATURAL GAS SUPPLIER: 1. AUSTRALIA (~26%); 2. TURKMENISTAN (~20%); 3. RUSSIA (~10%).
- E.U. IMPORTS 45% OF NEEDED NATURAL GAS FROM RUSSIA (OF TOTAL 251.44 million tons): 113 million tons (average daily consumption: 32.85 million tons).
- RUSSIA EXPORTS TO THE E.U. ACCOUNTS FOR 65% OF TOTAL EXPORTS: 113 million tons of 173.81 goes to the E.U.
US HURRICANE SEASON (June 1 to November 30):
- RECENT HISTORY SHOWS THAT HURRICANES IMPACT THE OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES:
- HURRICANE “IDA” (August 26, 2021): NATURAL GAS ROSE FROM $3.943 TO $6.310 (+60.00%) WITHIN A MONTH. Ida's ferocious winds and storm surge made a direct hit on Port Fourchon, the nation's most important hub for the offshore industry in the Gulf of Mexico.
- HURRICANE “DELTA” (October 4, 2020): NATURAL GAS ROSE FROM $2.485 TO $3.391 (+36.05%) WITHIN A MONTH. Hurricane Delta shut most US offshore oil and gas output in 15 years.
- HURRICANE “IKE” (September 1, 2008): NATURAL GAS ROSE FROM $5.440 TO $7.186 (+32.10%) WITHIN A MONTH.
- HURRICANE “KATRINA” (August 26, 2005): NATURAL GAS ROSE FROM $9.190 TO $14.750 (+60.50%) WITHIN A MONTH. Hurricane Katrina caused severe damage to U.S. refinery and production capacity in the Gulf of Mexico.
*Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
CURRENT:
- TROPICAL STORM IAN BECOME HURRICANE AND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND HIT GULF OF MEXICO. Most of the large-scale U.S. LNG export terminals are on the Gulf Coast.
- NATURAL GAS FLOWS VIA NORD STREAM 1 CUT DOWN TO 0.00% INDEFINITELY. Nord Stream 1 flows were responsible for around 40% of total Russian flows to Europe. In addition, the markets fear that Russia could soon consider cutting flows by other channels, like Ukraine, to Europe. Gazprom Deputy CEO Markelov says Reuters Nord Stream 1 will not be launched until Siemens Energy repairs faulty equipment. There is also a fear that gas flow through Ukraine pipelines can also be reduced.
- German Chancellor Olaf Scholz secured just one shipment of LNG from the United Arab Emirates, with a non-binding agreement for more. The cargo of 137,000 cubic meters will be delivered by early 2023.
- GERMANY CLOSER TO SIGNING LONG- TERM LIQUIFIED NATURAL GAS (LNG) DEALS WITH QATAR, BUT IT WILL NOT COME INTO EFFECT BEFORE 2026.
- FREEPORT LNG to restart operation at full capacity in November 2022, instead of October. This will boost demand for US LNG by 2 billion cubic feet per day, which is 2% of US output.
PRICE ACTION: The Natural Gas prices rose to a record high of $15.780 in 2005. Currently is moving around $7.15 and if a full recovery to 2005 highs happens, this could provide an increase of around 121%.
NATURAL GAS, September 27, 2022
Current Price:7.15
|
NATURAL GAS |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
9.00 |
|
|
8.40 |
|
|
8.00 |
|
|
6.38 |
|
|
6.20 |
|
|
5.90 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
18,500.00 |
12,500.00 |
8,500.00 |
-7,700.00 |
-9,500.00 |
-12,500.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
19,218.78 |
12,985.66 |
8,830.25 |
-7,999.17 |
-9,869.10 |
-12,985.66 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
17,128.12 |
11,573.06 |
7,869.68 |
-7,129.00 |
-8,795.52 |
-11,573.06 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
25,329.46 |
17,114.50 |
11,637.86 |
-10,542.53 |
-13,007.02 |
-17,114.50 |
1. 1 lot is equivalent of 10,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:20 (GMT+1) 27/9/2022
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
· You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
· Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more details