NATURAL GAS weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
NATURAL GAS GLOBAL MARKETS:
- LARGEST NATURAL GAS SUPPLIER IN THE WORLD (LNG + PIPELINE): 1. RUSSIA (173.81 million tons); 2. USA; 3. QATAR; 4. NORWAY; 5. AUSTRALIA;
- LARGEST NATURAL GAS IMPORTER IN THE WORLD: CHINA (121.99 million tons)
- CHINA’S LARGEST NATURAL GAS SUPPLIER: 1. AUSTRALIA (~26%); 2. TURKMENISTAN (~20%); 3. RUSSIA (~10%).
- E.U. IMPORTS 45% OF NEEDED NATURAL GAS FROM RUSSIA (OF TOTAL 251.44 million tons): 113 million tons (average daily consumption: 32.85 million tons).
- RUSSIA EXPORTS TO THE E.U. ACCOUNTS FOR 65% OF TOTAL EXPORTS: 113 million tons of 173.81 goes to the E.U.
CURRENT
- Natural gas fell on expectations for warmer temperatures until January 4, 2023. However, colder temperatures and a new arctic blast should hit the US during the second week of January, 2023. This is according to Weather25. Although not yet confirmed by Government sources, many other analysts are convinced that an arctic blast is coming through in January.
- Worries about decrease of Russian oil supply could send natural gas demand higher as an effective alternative to oil. European Union energy ministers reached an agreement to cap the price of the month-ahead Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures contract when it reaches 180 euros/MWh, or about $56/MMBtu, for three days. This measure designed to prevent extreme price swings — will apply for one year from Feb. 15.
- EIA reported that US production of natural gas used in homes is set to break an annual record of 98.0 Bcf/d in 2022 and to average between 100 Bcf/d and 101 Bcf/d in 2023, amid more pipeline infrastructure expansion projects in the second half of the year.
- EIA forecast dry natural gas production to grow in 2023, averaging between 100 Bcf/d and 101 Bcf/d for the year, about 2% more than in 2022. LNG exports are expected to average a little over 12.3bcf/day in 2023, up from an estimated 10.8bcf/day in 2022.
- For the week ending Dec. 23 the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expecting 201 Bcf withdrawal in natural gas storage inventories.
- The Freeport export terminal was shut down after an explosion on June 8. Executives at the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, said they now anticipate they will begin to bring operations back online in late -December. The company said reconstruction work necessary to commence initial operations, including utilization of all three liquefaction trains, was about 90% complete. The company expects to then ramp up to 2.0 Bcf/d of production capacity in December, with full restoration to 2.38 Bcf/d to follow. That final push may not happen until March, officials said.
PRICE ACTION: The Natural Gas prices rose to a record high of $15.780 in 2005. Currently is moving around $4.6 and if a full recovery to 2005 highs happens, this could provide an increase of around 239%. However, the price could decline further.
NATURAL GAS, December 29, 2022
Current Price: 4.63
|
NATURAL GAS |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
8.00 |
|
|
6.80 |
|
|
5.60 |
|
|
3.75 |
|
|
3.30 |
|
|
2.80 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
33,700.00 |
21,700.00 |
9,700.00 |
-8,800.00 |
-13,300.00 |
-18,300.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
31,673.08 |
20,394.83 |
9,116.58 |
-8,270.72 |
-12,500.06 |
-17,199.33 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
28,017.73 |
18,041.09 |
8,064.45 |
-7,316.20 |
-11,057.44 |
-15,214.37 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
45,840.26 |
29,517.32 |
13,194.38 |
-11,970.16 |
-18,091.26 |
-24,892.48 |
1. 1 lot is equivalent of 10,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:15 (GMT) 29/12/2022
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
· You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
· Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more details