Palladium weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
PALLADIUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:
- Palladium is mostly used in catalytic converters by the car industry to reduce harmful gas emission, while tightening regulation is forcing auto makers to put more of Palladium into each vehicle, which in turn could keep demand outlook positive. Palladium has also been used in fuel cells to generate power.
- MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia is the largest producer holding 43% of the markets, while South Africa is the second largest with 33.00% of the markets. Canada is third on the list with 9.5% of the global production.
- MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): China is the largest Palladium consumer with 31%, while Europe and North America (USA) hold 20% each. Japan stands at 11%.
- PALLADIUM MARKETS EXPECTED TO BE IN DEFICIT IN 2023: Russia’s Nornickel, the world’s largest Palladium producer forecast a 300,000 ounce deficit of Palladium in 2023.
CHINA:
- NEW STIMULUS PACKAGES ON THE WAY FOR Q3 AND Q4 OF 2023: CHINA CENTRAL BANK HAS CUT ITS INTEREST RATES: IT CUT ITS OVERNIGHT RATE BY 0.10% POINTS TO 2.75%; 7-DAY RATE BY 0.10% POINTS TO 2.9%; 1-MONTH RATE BY 0.10% POINTS TO 3.25%. Additional government measures are expected to be announced soon. The new stimulus packages could improve the economic outlook in China, which in turn could increase Palladium demand and prices.
- CHINA’S ECONOMY TO PICK UP IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2023. The Chinese economy saw a slower recovery in the second quarter ending first half of the year. The Chinese economy, however is expected to pick strength in Q3 and Q4 of 2023 as GDP growth rate of at least 5.00% is still expected for 2023.
- CHINA REOPENS ITS ECONOMY (2023): China’s COVID-Zero policy has ended. The Chinese government is no longer ordering lockdowns and quarantines. China’s Vice Premier Liu He said the economy could rise to its pre-COVID growth trends in 2023.
- CHINA CAR SALES EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2023: Chinese car sales are forecast to increase by 3% in 2023 from 2022, hitting 27.6 million units. Sales only increased 2.1% in 2022 from 2021, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
PRICE ACTION:
- PALLADIUM TRADES 63% BELOW ITS ALL- TIME HIGH OF $3409. Palladium currently trades around $1280, and if a full recovery followed to its recent all-time high, this could be an upside of around 166%. However, it could also decline further.
- WALL ST. ANALYSIS: HSBC set a price target of $2,180 for Palladium.
TECHICAL REVIEW:
- BREAKING: PALLADIUM HAS TESTED ITS LOWEST PRICE SINCE MAY 2019 ($1,263.25).
- STRONG SUPPORT AREA AT $1250- $1350: Palladium has tested the area of $1250- $1350 only five times since 2019.
GRAPH (Weekly): Palladium
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
PALLADIUM, June 23, 2023
Current Price:1280
|
PALLADIUM |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1650 |
|
|
1500 |
|
|
1390 |
|
|
1180 |
|
|
1100 |
|
|
1000 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
37,000 |
22,000 |
11,000 |
-10,000 |
-18,000 |
-28,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
33,855 |
20,130 |
10,065 |
-9,150 |
-16,470 |
-25,620 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
28,881 |
17,173 |
8,586 |
-7,806 |
-14,050 |
-21,856 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
48,942 |
29,101 |
14,550 |
-13,228 |
-23,810 |
-37,038 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:00 (GMT+1) 23/06/2023
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more details.