Palladium weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
PALLADIUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:
- Palladium is mostly used in catalytic converters by the car industry to reduce harmful gas emissions while tightening regulation is forcing automakers to put more Palladium into each vehicle, which in turn could keep the demand outlook positive. Palladium has also been used in fuel cells to generate power.
- MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia is the largest producer holding 43% of the markets, while South Africa is the second largest with 33.00% of the markets. Canada is third on the list with 9.5% of the global production.
- MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): China is the largest Palladium consumer with 31%, while Europe and North America (USA) hold 20% each. Japan stands at 11%.
- RUSSIA EXPECTED TO CUT PRODUCTION IN 2024: NORNICKEL, THE LARGEST PALLADIUM PRODUCER IN THE WORLD, TO CUT PRODUCTION IN 2024. The Russian miner said the output of the metal may fall almost 15% to as low as 2.3 million ounces. The company said that its production was down 17% year on year in Q4 of 2023.
CHINA:
- NEW STIMULUS PACKAGES IN Q1 OF 2024: CHINA CENTRAL BANK CUT THE RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO (RRR) FROM FEBRUARY 5. For some context, China went with two RRR cuts in 2023 i.e. one in March and one in September. They were both for 0.25% points each. There will be a hefty reduction this time around, as the Chinese central bank announces a 0.50% points cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), from 10.5% to 10%. This could release around 140 billion dollars to the economy. This is on top of the expected stimulus of 278 billion dollars.
- CHINA REOPENS ITS ECONOMY (2023): China’s COVID-Zero policy has ended. The Chinese government is no longer ordering lockdowns and quarantines. China’s Vice Premier Liu He said the economy could rise to its pre-COVID growth trends in 2024.
EVENTS (CHINA):
- MARCH 9 AT 01:30 GMT: CHINA INFLATION (CPI) (FEBRUARY). According to Bloomberg, analysts expect to see an increase of 0.2% year on year. Figures above 0.2% could have a positive impact on the Palladium prices.
- MARCH 18 AT 03:00 GMT: CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (FEBRUARY)
EVENTS (USA):
- MARCH 8 AT 13:30 GMT: US NONFARM PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (FEBRUARY). According to Bloomberg, the NFP is expected to come in at 190,000, and figures below that could have a positive impact on the Palladium prices.
- MARCH 12 AT 13:30 GMT: US INFLATION (FEBRUARY). According to Bloomberg, current estimates for February show a rate of 3.1% and if it comes in at level below that, Palladium can be then expected to rise in price.
PALLADIUM: PRICE ACTION
- BREAKING: PALLADIUM HAS TESTED ITS LOWEST PRICE SINCE AUGUST 2018 ($848). The Palladium price has fallen around 20% since the start of the year, becoming at one point cheaper in price than Platinum for the first time in five years.
ANALYST EXPECTATIONS 2024:
SOURCE: Bloomberg
PALLADIUM, March 7, 2024
Current Price: 1025
|
PALLADIUM |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1350 |
|
|
1200 |
|
|
1100 |
|
|
950 |
|
|
930 |
|
|
900 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
32,500 |
17,500 |
7,500 |
-7,500 |
-9,500 |
-12,500 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
29,832 |
16,063 |
6,884 |
-6,884 |
-8,720 |
-11,474 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
25,493 |
13,727 |
5,883 |
-5,883 |
-7,452 |
-9,805 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
43,889 |
23,632 |
10,128 |
-10,128 |
-12,829 |
-16,880 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:00 (GMT) 07/03/2024
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more details.