Silver Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS:
- ISRAEL EXPECT TO BE ATTACKED BY IRAN AND THEIR PROXIES AS IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER (AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI) ORDERED ATTACK ON ISRAEL. According to Reuters, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly, in retaliation for the killing in Tehran of Hamas’s leader, Ismail Haniyeh. Ismail Khamenei gave the order at an emergency meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, shortly after Iran announced that Ismail Haniyeh had been killed. Rising Middle East tensions could have a positive impact on silver prices.
- FEARS OVER AN ECONOMIC RECESSION IN THE US RISE: Fears over recession rose after poor Manufacturing PMI in the US for July (46.8 vs. 48.5 in June), while unemployment rose to 4.3% from the previous 4.1%, which would be the highest reading since November 2021. Unemployment in the US has risen from 3.5% in August last year to 4.3% in July this year.
EVENTS:
- WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 14 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US INFLATION (CPI) (JYLY). The US inflation continued falling, marking a decline from 3.5% to current 3.0% since April. If inflation continues falling, this could encourage the US Fed to start cutting its benchmark interest soon, which in return could put the US dollar under negative pressure. In this case, the Silver price could come under upward pressure.
OTHER ANALYSIS:
- SILVER DEMAND: The United States remains the most important market with 22% of global demand for silver, while China represents 15% of global demand for silver (Source: Bloomberg). China's economy could potentially grow by about 5%. The US imposed 50% tariffs on Chinese imports of solar cells, among the biggest industries for silver in an industrial end, to pressure output in panels throughout key factories in Asia with corporate bases in China. Base metals got a boost after China’s leaders pledged to step up support measures and stabilize market confidence at a Politburo meeting this week.
ANALYST EXPECTATIONS
- UBS: The bank targets a price of $36.
- CITIGROUP: The bank targets a price of $40.
- JP Morgan: The bank targets a price of $34.
PRICE ACTION
- ALL-TIME HIGH PRICE: $49.80. Silver jumped to $49.80 in 2011, during the debt crisis in Europe. Currently, Silver trades around $27.50.00 and if full recovery is made this could offer an upside potential of around 81%. However, the price could decline.
Silver, August 9, 2024
Current Price: 27.50
|
SILVER |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
32.00 |
|
|
30.00 |
|
|
28.60 |
|
|
26.50 |
|
|
26.00 |
|
|
25.70 |
Example of calculation based on trend direction for 1.00 Lot*
|
SILVER |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
45,000.00 |
25,000.00 |
11,000.00 |
-10,000.00 |
-15,000.00 |
-18,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
41,190.76 |
22,883.76 |
10,068.85 |
-9,153.50 |
-13,730.25 |
-16,476.30 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
35,250.02 |
19,583.34 |
8,616.67 |
-7,833.34 |
-11,750.01 |
-14,100.01 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
61,796.70 |
34,331.50 |
15,105.86 |
-13,732.60 |
-20,598.90 |
-24,718.68 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10.000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:10 (GMT) 09/08/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.