Tesla (#TSLA) weekly special report based On 1 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL EV MARKETS:
- ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EV) MAKE ONLY AROUND 9.0% OF TOTAL CAR SALES, WORTH 66.7 MILLION CARS IN 2021: The total global car market grew just 4.5% in 2021, by around 66.7 million cars. In 2020, the world sold around 63.8 million cars. The estimates say that around 6.5 million electric vehicles (EVs) were sold worldwide in 2021, up 109% from 2020. EV sales represent around 9% of all passenger car sales in 2021. The EV sector increased its market share from 4.11% in 2021 to around 9.00% off the global car sales.
- MARKET POTENTIAL: ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EV) COULD BE EXPECTED TO TAKE UP AROUND 50% OF GLOBAL CAR SALES BY 2030. The 2021 figures of 287.36 billion dollars are an increase of around 76% from 2020’s 160.01 billion dollars. Expecting this number to grow to 823.75 billion dollars, the EV market could be growing annually on average by 18.6%.
CHINA EV MARKETS:
- CHINA LEADS THE WAY (2021): EV MAKES AROUND 13% OF THE CAR MARKET IN CHINA, UP FROM 3.5% IN 2020: More than half of the total electric vehicles (EVs) sold worldwide last year (including plug-in hybrids) went to buyers in China. China led global EV growth in 2021 as sales nearly tripled (UP 277%) to 3.4 million (from 0.9 million in 2020). Total number of cars sold in 2021 in China was 26.28 million, and EV made around 13% of the market.
- MARKET SHARE CHINA: Tesla is the largest EV company in China, holding some 14% of the markets, followed by GM’s Wulling (~11.8%) and BYD (~10%)
- ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN CHINA COULD BE EXPECTED TO TAKE UP 40% OF CHINA’S CAR SALES BY 2030. Total car sales are expected to grow to 38 million in 2030, while around 15 million (or 40%) will be Electric Vehicles.
TESLA: ANALYSIS
- TESLA CAR DELIVERY: THE NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO GROW ANNUALLY. ESTIMATED AVERAGE GROWTH RATE (2016- 2023): 63%. Tesla Inc. has so far in 2022 delivered around 909,000 cars, which is up 49% from the same period last year (around 610,000). Tesla is expected to finish the year with a delivery of around 1.39 million cars, which would be up around 50% from 2021 (around 936,000). Estimates say that Tesla could deliver around 2 million cars in 2023. Tesla is expected to fully exploit capacities with the Gigafactories in Fermont (California), Austin (Texas), Berlin (Germany) and Shanghai (China).
- FINANCIALS: REVENUE GROWTH ANUALLY ON AVERAGE (2016- 2023): 51%. Revenue was at 53.82 billion dollars in 2021 and it could be expected to grow by around 55% to 83.52 billion dollars in 2022 (new record).
- EVENT: TESLA STARTS DELIVERY OF ITS SEMI- TRUCK ON DECEMBER 1. Tesla will deliver 15 trucks to Pepsi by the end of 2022 as part of their 100 trucks deal.
- EVENT (EXPECTED: JANUARY 2, 2023): Q4 CAR DELIVERY DATA. Tesla is expected to deliver a record number of cars in Q4, amounting to levels above 450,000. This should be supported by higher orders in China due to subsidies that end later this year, as Tesla decided to reduce Mode 3 and Y model prices.
- NEXT GIGA-FACTORY: According to the latest rumors, Tesla could open its new Gigafactory, in addition to current in Berlin (Germany), Shanghai (China), Fermont and Austin (USA), in South Korea.
TESLA: PRICE ACTION
- THE STOCK HAS HAD A DOWNWARD CORRECTION OF AROUND 60% FROM ITS ALL- TIME HIGH OF $414.4 (November 4, 2021). The stock fell to its lowest rate since November 2020 to $165.73 (November 22, 2022). Tesla was last trading around $170, and if a full recovery follows to recent all- time highs, the stock could see an upside of around 144%, however the price could also decline further.
- ANALYSTS OPINIONS: Goldman Sachs forecasts $305 a share. Wedbush forecasts $250. Morgan Stanley forecasts $330. Deutsche Bank forecasts $355.
#TSLA, November 23, 2022
Current Price:170
|
Tesla |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
305 |
|
|
250 |
|
|
210 |
|
|
140 |
|
|
130 |
|
|
120 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Tesla |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
135,000 |
80,000 |
40,000 |
-30,000 |
-40,000 |
-50,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
130,988 |
77,622 |
38,811 |
-29,108 |
-38,811 |
-48,514 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
113,363 |
67,178 |
33,589 |
-25,192 |
-33,589 |
-41,986 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
180,835 |
107,162 |
53,581 |
-40,186 |
-53,581 |
-66,976 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:50 (GMT) 11/23/2022
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