WHEAT weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL WHEAT MARKET SHARE:
- LARGEST WHEAT PRODUCERS (OF TOTAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED IN 2023/2024: 786.67 MILLION TONES): China at 17%, European Union at ~17%, India at ~14%, Russia at ~12%, USA at ~6% and Ukraine ~3%.
- LARGEST WHEAT EXPORTERS OF TOTAL 216 MILLION TONS (2023/2024): Russia at 12.68%, Australia at 11.85%, USA at 11.11%, Ukraine at 8.9% and France at 7.45%.
- RUSSIA + UKRAINE SHARE at ~21.58%: Russia and Ukraine make more than 20% of total global exports.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:
- MONTHLY WASDE REPORT (USA) (AUGUST 12): Wheat output in the US is expected to rise by 133 million bushels to 2,0008 million bushels, while exports are expected to rise by 25 million bushels to 825 million bushels. In addition to that, the US Department of Agriculture raised its 2024/2025 expectations for the ending stock by 98 million bushels to 856 million bushels. This could be the highest since the 2019/2020 season.
- NEXT WASDE REPORT: September 12,2024.
RECENT PRICE ACTION:
- WHEAT PRICES HAVE HAD A DOWNWARD CORRECTION OF AROUND 30% (FROM $719.5 ON MAY 28, 2024 TO $501 ON AUGUST 23, 2024). In May 2024, the Wheat prices rose to its highest in ten months ($719.50). Wheat traded last around $550, and if a full recovery happens, it could provide an upside potential of around 30%. However, the price could decline further.
- STRONG SUPPORT AT $520: Since 2020, Wheat has been predominantly trading above the mark of $520. Wheat has tested the area around $520 six times since 2020, and every time it would recover to levels toward 600 or above. (Data Source: Fortrade Meta Trader 4 Platform)
GRAPH (Weekly): February 2020 – September 2024
*Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
WHEAT, September 3, 2023
Current Price: 545
|
Wheat |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
700 |
|
|
650 |
|
|
600 |
|
|
500 |
|
|
490 |
|
|
480 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
WHEAT |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
15,500 |
10,500 |
5,500 |
-4,500 |
-5,500 |
-6,500 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
14,031 |
9,505 |
4,979 |
-4,073 |
-4,979 |
-5,884 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
11,813 |
8,002 |
4,192 |
-3,429 |
-4,192 |
-4,954 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
20,906 |
14,162 |
7,418 |
-6,069 |
-7,418 |
-8,767 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:30 (GMT+1) 03/09/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.