EUR/USD weekly downtrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
- EVENT (OCTOBER 7 AT 13:30 GMT+1): US NONFARM PAYROLL DATA AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (SEPTEMBER). The US labor market remains resilient, which could be supported by the September NFP data on October 7. In this case, the US Fed could be encouraged to continue raising their interest rates. According to initial estimates, the NFP is expected to come in at 290,000. The Unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%.
- EVENT (OCTOBER 13 AT 13:30 GMT+1): US INFLATION (SEPTEMBER). The US Headline Inflation is expected to come in at 8.3%, which would be equal to August’s 8.3%.
- EURZONE INFLATION HITS A FRESH ALL- TIME HIGH OF 10%. Inflation in the Eurozone continued to rise despite recently falling energy prices. Rising inflation continues to weaken the purchasing power of the euro, which could keep investors away from the unique currency. This could be negative for the Euro.
- EUROPEAN ECONOMY REMAINS UNDER THREAT OF RECESSION AS RUSSIAN NATURAL GAS FLOWS FROM NORD STREAM 1 WERE CUT DOWN TO 0.00%. Nord Stream 1 flows were responsible for around 40% of total Russian flows to Europe. In addition, the markets fear that Russia could soon consider cutting flows via other channels, like Ukraine, to Europe. Recent economic data in Europe and Germany, in particular, has shown that the EU economy continued to fall and reduced natural gas flows from Russia to Germany could exacerbate this situation as Russia provided German with 55% of their needs last year. Without the Russian gas, the German economy could soon enter a recession, which may be negative for the Euro currency.
- US- EUROPE INTEREST RATES DIFFERENTIALS IN FAVOUR OF THE US DOLLAR AFTER THE U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE RAISING INTEREST RATES TO THE HIGHEST SINCE 2008 (3.25%): The interest rates (FED) in the US have gone up recently to 3.25%, while the benchmark interest rate in Europe has gone up to 1.25%. The difference between the two remains 2% points in favor of the US dollar, which makes the US dollar more attractive than the Euro. This could be another reason why the US dollar could continue strengthening against the Euro.
- ANALYST OPINION: Goldman Sachs forecasts 0.97. Morgan Stanley forecast 0.97.
EUR/USD, October 5, 2022
Current Price: 0.9950
|
EUR/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.0230 |
|
|
1.0200 |
|
|
1.0140 |
|
|
0.9750 |
|
|
0.9600 |
|
|
0.9500 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
EUR/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
-2,800 |
-2,500 |
-1,900 |
2,000 |
3,500 |
4,500 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
-2,818 |
-2,516 |
-1,912 |
2,013 |
3,522 |
4,529 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
-2,457 |
-2,194 |
-1,667 |
1,755 |
3,071 |
3,948 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
-3,797 |
-3,390 |
-2,577 |
2,712 |
4,746 |
6,103 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 08:54 (GMT+1) 05/10/2022
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- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
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