COCOA (#COCOA) Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
TECHNICAL REVIEW
- STRONG SUPPORT: AREA BETWEEN $8000 AND $7000. Since May 2024, Cocoa prices have frequently tested the region between $8000 and $7000. However, on 10 occasions, Cocoa prices would come back and stay above $8,000.
- ALL-TIME HIGH (DECEMBER 18, 2024): $12,911. Cocoa last traded around $7,475, and if the cocoa price tries to recover to its recent all-time high of $12,911, it can then offer an upside of around 72%. Although prices can fall, too.
GRAPH (DAILY): APRIL 2024 - AUGUST 2025
- 2024-2025 STATISTICS: COCOA PRICE CHANGE AFTER BREAKING AND STAYING ABOVE THE MARK OF $8000 OR NEAR. COCOA ROSE BY AROUND 21.47% ON AVERAGE AFTER RECOVERING FROM ITS SUPPORT ZONE AND BREAKING THROUGH AND STAYING ABOVE THE MARK OF $8000.
|
Period (MAY 2024 - AUGUST 2025) |
P0 |
P1 |
Price Change $ |
Price Change % |
|
From May 7 to May 8, 2024 |
$8,000.00 |
$9,059.00 |
$1,059.00 |
13.24% |
|
From May 28 to June 13, 2024 |
$8,000.00 |
$10,290.00 |
$2,290.00 |
28.63% |
|
From July 9 to July 12, 2024 |
$8,000.00 |
$8,659.00 |
$659.00 |
8.24% |
|
From August 6 to August 9, 2024 |
$8,000.00 |
$9,212.00 |
$1,212.00 |
15.15% |
|
From September 25 to September 26, 2024 |
$8,000.00 |
$8,783.00 |
$783.00 |
9.79% |
|
From November 13 to December 18, 2024 |
$8,000.00 |
$12,911.00 |
$4,911.00 |
61.39% |
|
From April 1 to April 3, 2025 |
$8,000.00 |
$9,480.00 |
$1,480.00 |
18.50% |
|
From April 16 to May 20, 2025 |
$8,000.00 |
$11,265.00 |
$3,265.00 |
40.81% |
|
From July 21 to July 29, 2025 |
$8,000.00 |
$8,705.00 |
$705.00 |
8.81% |
|
From August 7 to August 11 |
$8,000.00 |
$8,809.00 |
$809.00 |
10.11% |
|
Average |
$1,717.30 |
21.47% |
||
DATA SOURCE: Fortrade MetaTrader 4
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
SUPPLY SIDE:
- TOP PRODUCERS: The biggest producers are Ivory Coast (40% of world total), Ghana (20% of world total), Nigeria, and other small countries in Africa (10% of world total). All in all, West Africa produces around 70% of the world’s total. So, any problems that hit West Africa impact production on a massive scale.
- WEATHER CONCERNS IN WEST AFRICA REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF HARVEST SEASON STARTING IN OCTOBER 2025: Barchart reported that according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, rainfall in the Ivory Coast and Ghana this season remains below the 30-year average, and combined with high temperatures, risks hurting cocoa pod development for the main crop harvest that starts in October 2025.
- CHRONIC AGRICULTURAL PROBLEMS IN WEST AFRICA: Various problems, such as El Nino warm weather (compounded by climate change), Black pod fungal disease, and the swollen shoot virus, could cause supply disruptions and price spikes of cocoa.
DEMAND SIDE:
- TOP CONSUMERS: The biggest consumers of cocoa are developed countries (around 70% of the total demand for cocoa), but the demand for cocoa could increase, especially from emerging and developing countries like China and India. (China and India have cocoa consumption growth rates of around 20% and 10% respectively, which means that the market could double on average every 3,6 and 7,2 years).
- HIGHER DEMAND GROWTH RATE: The average growth rate for world cocoa demand could be projected at 4.7%.
COCOA (#COCOA) September 2, 2025.
Current Price: 7,475
|
Cocoa |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
10,000 |
|
|
9,000 |
|
|
8,500 |
|
|
7,000 |
|
|
6,800 |
|
|
6,600 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Cocoa |
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|
|
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|
Profit or loss in $ |
25,250 |
15,250 |
10,250 |
-4,750 |
-6,750 |
-8,750 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
21,703 |
13,108 |
8,810 |
-4,083 |
-5,802 |
-7,521 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
18,897 |
11,413 |
7,671 |
-3,555 |
-5,052 |
-6,549 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
34,852 |
21,049 |
14,148 |
-6,556 |
-9,317 |
-12,077 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:50 (GMT+1) 02/09/2025
There is a possibility to use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.