CRUDE OIL

CRUDE OIL Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:

GEOPOLITICS: TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH BETWEEN THE USA/UKRAINE, AND RUSSIA

• BREAKING: PROSPECT OF PUTIN-ZELENSKI MEETING FADES, raising fresh concerns over prolonged sanctions and continued disruptions in Russian energy flows. U.S. President Trump has floated the idea of facilitating such a summit—but his influence remains uncertain, and lingering skepticism around Russia’s commitment keeps risk premiums elevated. Meanwhile, European leaders have rallied behind Ukraine, pushing for security guarantees and keeping sanctions alive, reinforcing resistance to any premature easing. As conflict persists—with Ukraine launching strikes on Russian oil facilities and peace talks stalling, oil prices have rebounded, underpinned by fears of supply disruptions and ongoing uncertainty.
• 17% OF RUSSIA’S OIL-PROCESSING CAPACITY—EQUIVALENT TO AROUND 1.1 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY—WAS TAKEN OFFLINE after Ukrainian drone strikes, according to Reuters’ estimates.
• U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY SCOTT BESSENT SAID ALL OPTIONS ARE ON THE TABLE REGARDING NEW SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA. He remarked after Moscow intensified airstrikes on Ukraine, stressing that Washington is prepared to escalate economic pressure if no progress is made on peace efforts.

RUSSIAN OIL PRODUCTION: Russia produces around 9% of total oil production in the world, or nearly 10 million barrels a day.

RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS: Russia’s oil exports are around 5 million barrels a day, representing around 5% of total global consumption.

TRADE: OPTIMISM PREVAILS

• BREAKING (AUGUST 11): US PRESIDENT TRUMP EXTENDED CHINA TARIFF TRUCE FOR ANOTHER 90 DAYS UNTIL MID-NOVEMBER. President Donald Trump signed an executive order delaying the reinstatement of higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods for an additional 90 days, moving the deadline to mid-November 2025. The USA and China are the two largest consumers of oil and petroleum in the world, consuming together more than 30 million barrels of oil a day, which is nearly 30% of total global daily consumption.

EVENTS (ECONOMIC CALENDAR):

• WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 3 AT 15:30 GMT+1: AMERICAN PETROL INSTITUTE (API) OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected. However, the price could decline.
• THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4 AT 15:30 GMT+1: ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION (EIA) OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected. However, the price could decline.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

• CRUDE OIL PRICES HAVE TESTED THE LOWEST LEVEL IN MORE THAN TWO MONTHS ($61.265): Crude oil prices have fallen to their lowest in more than two months, testing levels not seen since late May 2025.
• LONG-TERM SUPPORT AREA AT THE PSYCHOLOGICAL MARK OF $60: Crude oil prices have recently tested levels near $60, which has been acting as a support area since early 2021.
• STATISTICS (2021-2025): CRUDE OIL PRICES COULD RECOVER AFTER TESTING THE AREA NEAR THE MARK OF $60. Crude oil prices have approached the area near $60 in total seven times since early 2021. According to the daily chart below, after testing levels near $60, crude oil prices could recover towards the area between $70 and $75. Although prices can fall, too.

GRAPH (Daily): January 2021 – September 2025

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

Crude Oil, September 2, 2025.
Current Price: 65.00

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:35 (GMT) 2/09/2025

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
• Trailing stop techniques could protect the profit.